Warming Up Tomorrow, NHL All-Star Weekend Update; Severe Tuesday?

Current Radar 

Today – Clouds Decreasing – High: 41°

I hope you are having a great week so far!

Clouds will break up late the morning into the afternoon. It will be mostly sunny this afternoon with temperatures below normal in the low 40s.

High pressure — the great wind-direction maker — will be moving in from the northwest.

gfs wed 6pm

Today the pressure location is keeping us chilly.

Thursday – Warming Up – Waking Up: 25° High: 51°

Freezing wake-up temps will give way to 50s during the afternoon. High pressure will move east and past us, turning the winds to the south and warming us up. Enjoy the sunshine!

Overnight Snow? Nope! An upper level trough will sweep through the eastern portion of the state late on Thursday night into early Friday morning. There will be a few flurries for the eastern portion of the state, but all of it will remain north and east of us. Sorry kids… 

friday 12 am 

Friday – Slightly Cooler – Waking Up: 30° High: 49°

The upper level trough passing over us will decrease our temperatures on Friday.

But, no worries! It will be mostly sunny, and winds will again shift to out of the south on Friday. This will help temperatures warm up for the weekend ahead.

Moisture will also increase over the weekend with dew points near 50°.

The Weekend

Nice and mild. Quite hospitable for the NHL All-Star Weekend. Those coming from out of town should plan on rain Sunday night, but not a big deal. We expect no travel delays on our end.

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Severe Weather Tuesday?

Maybe.

This is a bit of an unusual move by the Storm Prediction Center. “Day 7” outlooks are uncommon, and they reflect a general idea that severe weather may happen somewhere inside the yellow circle.

We wrote about this potential severe setup Sunday, fully expecting severe weather ingredients to disappear from the models. It did not disappear. The models have held on to it, and now the SPC has it in the above outlook. The Euro model puts all the stuff you need to make severe weather in that yellow area Tuesday. The GFS a little less so, but all of it is still there:

–An upper level jet of 100+ mph winds at 18,000 feet screaming overhead, a strong surface cold front sweeping across, and strong surface low pressure tracking near/along the Ohio River, which is the “right” spot for strong or severe weather.

–Dewpoints as high as 61° (per Euro model), which is very high for early February. If we get this amount of humidity, there will be plenty of energy available to power up some storms.

NWS-Nashville commented  “conditions appear favorable for some strong thunderstorms with this system even at this extended range, but this is of course very subject to change and [we] will have to wait until closer to time to see how the synoptic and mesoscale details evolve.”

How Concerned We Are: outside of range/way too soon. Freaking out based on Day 7 data is a bad way to live. Just something to watch…closely.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Rain On The Way

Current Radar 

Today – Rain on the Way! High: 50° 

Rain will slowly but surely increase today as a surface low from the west accelerates northeast. The clouds will also increase this afternoon and we will be left with an overcast sky this evening.

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Here’s your visible satellite from just before lunch.

ECVS

Southerly winds will pick up after lunchtime today. Winds gusting up to 15 mph are possible.

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With temps approaching 50° and rain coming, we should see significant snowmelt.

monday 8 pm

The band of showers ahead of a cold front will move in late this evening into the morning hours on Tuesday.

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The good news is we won’t fall below freezing overnight tonight into Tuesday morning.

Tuesday – The Rain Continues Temps Slowly Falling from the Low 40°s to Upper 30°s All Day

A cold front will catch up with our warm front and it will occlude just to the southeast of us. What does this mean for us? More rain during the morning and afternoon on Tuesday. 

Tuesday 8 am

By Tuesday afternoon, the rain should be southeast of us as the cold front moves in.

Tuesday noon

Our high temp Tuesday will be achieved in the very early morning hours. Temperatures will fall rapidly through the 30°s Tuesday night, then settle in the upper 20°s when you are waking up on Wednesday.

After that, expect a slow warm up. We’re looking warmer and clearer through the end of the work week:

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Winter Storm Warning in Effect until 6:00 AM Saturday

Current Radar 

Today – WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY High: 34°

Main impacts… dangerous traveling conditions and power outages. Ice accumulations up to two tenths of an inch possible with locally heavier amounts. 

The snow will continue to fall through the afternoon into the evening hours. Roadways only get worse. Try to avoid driving today!

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The National Weather Service posted a great graphic showing forecast snow accumulations.

For the remainder of the day:

 

Thank you for your reports on Twitter! Keep them coming! We will also keep you updated on Twitter throughout the day!

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At 7:17 AM, if you were on the NW side of this line, you were winning the snow lottery. Those on the SE side, aka the Rain/Mix side, were getting left out of the huge accumulating snow due to above-freezing air sitting aloft (between 2,300 feet and 4,000 feet).

The fabled Deformation Zone was setting up along and N of I-40 into Davidson County, where, in about 5 hours, we got an entire season’s worth of snowfall.

Saturday – Colder! Waking Up: 24° High: 31°

A cold front will sweep through and reinforce the cold air into our area. It will be windy when you are waking up on Saturday. The winds should calm down late afternoon and evening.

A few light flurries may squeeze out early Saturday morning as the system moves to the northeast and buries them.

Snowmelt will be difficult because temps are forecast to stay below freezing. Roadways – especially untreated/secondary roads — will still be dangerous during the day.

GFS Sat 6 am

Clouds will clear out Saturday evening.

High pressure will then settle in late Saturday into Sunday morning. Low temperatures will drop into the teens on Sunday morning. That is no typo! Dangerously cold conditions can be expected Sunday morning.

Sunday –  A Few Clouds Waking Up: 15° High: 38°

High pressure moves in Sunday morning while temperatures warm up into the upper 30s in the afternoon. There will be a few clouds around our area on Sunday. Winds will shift from the north to out of the south on Sunday. This will help draw in some moisture and warmer air into our area form the Gulf.

Don’t get too comfortable though! We are tracking our next system currently sitting over the Pacific Ocean that will accelerate across western US then northeast ramping up rain chances for us early next week. Until then, enjoy the sunshine on Sunday!

Extended: There is that rain on Monday I was talking about! Temperatures will warm up Sunday into Monday.

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This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Snow Friday?

Current Radar 

Today – High: 36°

SNOW DAY!!! Many of us saw Sleet, Freezing Rain, and Snow today. We got lots of great reports. Thank You!

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All the snow has pushed out of our area and is now covering the Smokies. The HRRR model shows it push further east.

Our temps are very slowly climbing above freezing. We’ll top out at 36°, but only briefly. Melting may not completely occur, so after the sun goes down…be careful.

We will fall below 32º at some point tonight. When that happens black ice can occur.

Thursday — Cold Rain — Waking Up: 29° High: 40°

A trough will move in our direction on Thursday while a surface low over Louisiana moves through Mississippi into our area late on Thursday. It will keep us cold on Thursday with temperatures below normal near the low 40s.

Right now it looks like we will see a batch of rain move in by lunchtime on Thursday.

Thursday 12 Pm

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The rain will steadily increase through the afternoon hours. We could even hear a few rumbles of thunder. The Storm Prediction Center has us included in a general thunderstorm outlook for Thursday.

day 2 outlook

The severe threat will be well off to our southwest in Louisiana and SW Mississippi. We can expect heavy rainfall at times.

The rain will last late afternoon into the evening hours. Temperatures will begin to drop below the freezing mark once the sun sets.

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Friday – Rain Changing to Snow? –  Waking Up: 36° High: 38°

A strong low pressure system will have a cold rain on one side and snow — maybe even a lot of snow — on the other side.

The current expected track of the low puts us on the cold/snow side. Our high temperature would be achieved very early in the morning, then, once the winds shift and start blowing from the N and NE, temps crash below freezing and snow comes on in.

NAM4 Model

This model has had a good week. By 9 AM, rain changes to snow as freezing air wraps around the NW side of the low:

Snow continues to stream in, wrapped around the NW side of the low. This would be a 2″ or 3″ event:

GFS Model

Same setup — a low moving NE passes to our south, temps crash, and “back end” precip wrapping around the parent low changes to snow Friday morning.

This model curiously wants to put more snow in West TN and on the plateau than we get. We would only get a few inches in this scenario.

Other Models

The “illustration” is the same. All models give us rain changing to snow. GGEM delivers 4″. NAM12 model says 6″+. Then there’s the Euro, which sets up the deformation band almost on top of us, and snows a foot. No, I don’t think we are getting a foot of snow, that total is an outlier and should be discounted, but if that deformation band sets up on or near us, it will be the most snow we’ve seen in years. 4″ plus, easy.

Qualifiers

I am not freaking out about this. Not yet, anyway.

For starters, we are still two days away, and the models have been painting that heavy area of snow all over the place. Prior runs had it in Kentucky, West TN, E KY, it’s just our turn to get the Euro “clown map” of huge snowfall. Don’t take the bait. Be smart — do you really think it’ll snow 12″ here? If you do, let’s see it on multiple model runs in multiple models. Later runs surely will refine the forecast. We will update this forecast again tonight and twice tomorrow.

Second, we’re going to get a lot of rain Thursday night and Friday morning before the changeover. Falling snowflakes will encounter water, inhibiting snow accumulation. Also, because the ground will have been above freezing for several hours, we expect a lot of melting as the event starts. Bridges, overpasses, and areas at elevation will freeze/accumulate first, but it may take a while for it to “stick.”

Third, I don’t think we’ll go straight from rain to snow. We may see a brief period of sleet before it becomes snow, but the model counts that as snow. It isn’t. Also, don’t fixate on the snow ETA in the morning…it may be the afternoon.

Finally, I never feel good about a snow forecast when we’re depending on the “back end” part of a departing system to get us cold enough for snow. Many times, the cold temps arrive a few hours later than forecast, by the time they arrive most (or all) the precip has ended. This is a familiar refrain in snow busts here, and I refuse to get tricked by it.

More on this tonight.

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This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Rain, Thunderstorms Saturday. Flurries Early Sunday?

Current Radar 

Happy Friday! Overcast. High: 59°

Most of the rain we saw overnight has pushed off to the east . There will be a few pesky isolated showers in our area this morning, but nothing really umbrella worthy.

The cloud cover will hang around today into tonight. Temperatures will be above normal in the upper 50s with some areas reaching the low 60s.

Rain will begin to develop late this evening in East Texas ahead of an arctic cold front that’s slowly and inexorably marching our way.

Saturday – Rain, Maybe Even Thunderstorms – Waking Up: 49° High: 57°

Rain is expected to be off and on all day, and should be heavy at times.

The Storm Prediction Center issued a marginal risk of strong thunderstorms for western Middle Tennessee. We’re not included in the risk area, but storms to our west and southwest could be strong or maybe/probably not severe, then move our way. We aren’t anticipating severe weather Saturday, but because we’re “downstream” of active weather, we’ll have to closely watch it.

Storm Prediction Center Jan 8, 2016 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook 2016-01-08 07-58-36

As for the rain itself, the NAM4 model think it will move into our western counties early Saturday morning.

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With another complex of showers arriving around lunchtime.

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The rain will continue late on Saturday.

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Most of the rain has moved to the northeast by midnight. The blue stuff you see is snow per the NAM4 model, which may stay north of us into the overnight/wee hours of Sunday morning.

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Sunday – Colder! Waking Up: 33°, Just Getting Colder From There

The GFS and Euro models disagree with the NAM4, and think there will be some Sunday morning flakes flying.

No snow accumulation is expected. We’ll have to wait, or move, if we want stuff like this:

Accumulating snow is forecast comfortably north of us.

The big weather story will be the arctic front. It’ll arrive as we sleep Saturday night, and slash temperatures by 20° to 25°.

Sunday will be cold! By noon, we should be below freezing and on our way into the 20°s, bottoming out at 20° early Monday morning.

Extended: Clearing out Sunday evening then mostly sunny on Monday! More light snow is possible late Tuesday. Right now this looks like no big deal.

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This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Warming Trend with Rain on the Way!

Current Temps/Radar 

Today – Clouds Increase High: 48°

Surface high pressure to the east will be influencing our wind flow.

wednesday 12 pm

Winds have shifted from the north to out of the south for the rest of the week. The southerly winds will continue to pull in moisture from the Gulf as we end the work week. Dew points will increase each just adding a tad more moisture into our area.

Clouds will increase this afternoon with temperatures right around normal. Then another cold night in store for us with temperatures right around the freezing mark.

Thursday –  Rain Late in the afternoon Waking Up: 31° High: 53°

We are tracking our first rain event of 2016! A surface low will move over the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. Why we care? With enough moisture in place over Texas – showers will develop then move east/northeast Thursday morning into the early afternoon.

thursday 1 AM

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Clouds will increase until we are left with overcast skies Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will be above normal in the low 50s around our area.

Rain will begin to move in from the west as the surface low accelerates northeast.

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The main band of showers will leave by midnight then a second weaker round of rain will move in. The good news is by the time it gets to us it will break apart leaving isolated showers in the area.

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Now once this system moves through it will not drop our temperatures on Thursday. In fact, we will warm up into the low 60s on Friday.

Friday – Rain Lingers into the Morning Waking Up: 45° High: 61°

Isolated rain showers are expected to linger into the morning hours on Friday just before that morning commute. It will still be mostly cloudy in the morning hours on Friday.

friday 6 am

Not anticipating a washout with this next system moving through. Rain totals around us will be under half an inch.

Rainfall total

Scattered clouds hang around Friday afternoon and evening.

Extended: Another system will then move over our area on Saturday and a key thing to note here is that temperatures will be well above the freezing mark. Snow??? Don’t get too excited, kids.

Sunday there is a possibility that some areas could see a rain/snow mix, but it will mostly be a cold rain event. We will keep you updated on the system moving through this weekend and have a model comparison.

Extended

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Rain Coming. Weekend Flakes?

Current Temps/Radar 

Temps will fall into the upper 30°s after 5:00 pm.

Through the overnight temperatures will be cold again in the mid 20°s under a clear sky.

Wednesday – Warming Trend – Waking Up: 25° High: 50°

We start off mostly sunny, then clouds will increase after lunchtime through the afternoon. Temperatures will be above freezing through the overnight hours.

Thursday – Rain Moves In – Waking Up: 35° High: 54°

Rain will return on Thursday with temperatures above normal in the afternoon.

Winds out of the southwest will pump in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. An upper level shortwave along with a surface low to the west will arrive, delivering rain sometime late afternoon/early evening:

THURSDAY 6pm

 

Talking About Snow

Showers will linger into the morning hours on Friday through the afternoon.

Another rainmaker is on the way this weekend. A surface low will move over the Texas Panhandle Friday evening then continue to track northeast bringing more rain into our area Saturday afternoon.

The rain will linger into Saturday and Sunday … then some models have a quick rain/snow mix by Sunday morning.

Really? Snow in the forecast for this weekend?

Just by looking at the models there are many uncertainties, and the models do not agree on anything meaningful.

First, the GFS shows a light dusting possible to the north/ northwest. Take note that this is total snow accumulation through the weekend, and it’s not much/anything.

sunday 12 pm snow

Second, the Canadian Model moves the dusting possibility to the south into Davidson County. Now, keep in mind that this is more than 3 days out so there will be uncertainties – forecast skill this far away is poor.

GEM 12 pm

Third, the European Model (which I cannot show) has no snow accumulation in Tennessee through the end of the week into Sunday at 12:00 pm.

The only agreement in the models I see right is that temperatures will be above the freezing mark on Sunday and any dusting of snow possible will likely be to the northwest.

Temperatures on Sunday will be above the freezing mark in the morning and afternoon. With the air temperature in the upper 30s and some areas in the low 40s – if snow falls it will then melt before reaching the surface. There is a possibility we will see a rain/snow mix on Sunday, but just by looking at the temperatures… Meh. Not buying it. We will keep you updated on the model updates through this week.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Warmer Temps Coming Soon

Current Radar 

Tuesday – Mostly Sunny – Waking Up: 23° High: 44°

Going to be very cold in the morning under a mostly clear sky.

We will warm up in the afternoon, all thanks to this high to the northeast with winds beginning to shift from the north to the east/southeast. Expect mostly sunny conditions for with temperatures near seasonal normal.

Wednesday – Mostly Sunny – Waking Up: 25° High: 50°

Temperatures will be below that freezing mark once again on Wednesday under a clear sky. For those kiddos headed back to school this week make sure they have a heavy jacket while waiting at the bus stops in the morning.

Temperatures soar into the low 50s by the afternoon with winds out of the south at 5 to 10 mph. High pressure just to the east over Virginia and North Carolina will influence our wind flow for Wednesday. Dew points are expected to rise from the teens into the mid 20s by Wednesday afternoon.

TwisterData.com | GFS 10 M ABOVE GROUND WSPD Forecast 2016-01-04 10-13-55

There will be some clouds in our area on Wednesday as well.

Extended: Rain will return on Thursday as a surface low over the Texas Panhandle moves northeast, bringing rain into our area during the late afternoon/early evening hours on Thursday. Showers will linger into Friday afternoon with high temperatures near 60°.

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This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Sunny/Chilly

Current Radar 

Saturday – Plenty of Sunshine! – Early 27° High: 47°

We will be well below freezing overnight. This will begin 5 consecutive mornings with temps well into the 20°s.

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It will be a clear and chilly Saturday night.

Sunday – Above Normal Temperatures Early 28° High: 48°

We will be warming up on Sunday under a sunny sky.

Overall, if you like the cold the weekend will be a nice one!

Extended: The sunshine will continue for the beginning of the work week! The surface high pressure will reinforce the cold air into the area once again on Monday. Temperatures will fall back into the low 40s on Monday and rain chance will return by the end of the week.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Our NYE Forecast

Current Radar 

New Year’s Eve (Thursday) – MUCH Cooler! Waking Up: 36° High: 47°

The cool air really settles into our area from the north on New Year’s Eve. We have those northerly winds that continue to draw in the cooler, drier air.

Temperatures will be right around normal in the afternoon, but it will be pretty chilly out there!

THURSDAY 12

If you plan on going to the big NYE Bash on Broadway downtown, take the jacket! Here is the evening hour by hour forecast:

FRIDAY MIDNIGHT

New Year’s Day (Friday) – Below Normal Temperatures Waking Up: 31° High: 44°

We will be kicking off 2016 in the low 30s! Brrrr. No rain in the forecast for New Year’s Day.

Clouds will begin to clear out in the morning on Friday leaving us with sunshine in the afternoon.

Surface high pressure from the west will move east on Friday keeping conditions pretty quiet for the end of the week into the weekend.

FRIDAY 6 pm TD

Extended: Lows will be well below the freezing mark over the weekend. Take a heavy jacket to church in the morning on Sunday. On the bright side the sunshine continues during the weekend!

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This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.