Rain Coming. Weekend Flakes?

Current Temps/Radar 

Temps will fall into the upper 30°s after 5:00 pm.

Through the overnight temperatures will be cold again in the mid 20°s under a clear sky.

Wednesday – Warming Trend – Waking Up: 25° High: 50°

We start off mostly sunny, then clouds will increase after lunchtime through the afternoon. Temperatures will be above freezing through the overnight hours.

Thursday – Rain Moves In – Waking Up: 35° High: 54°

Rain will return on Thursday with temperatures above normal in the afternoon.

Winds out of the southwest will pump in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. An upper level shortwave along with a surface low to the west will arrive, delivering rain sometime late afternoon/early evening:



Talking About Snow

Showers will linger into the morning hours on Friday through the afternoon.

Another rainmaker is on the way this weekend. A surface low will move over the Texas Panhandle Friday evening then continue to track northeast bringing more rain into our area Saturday afternoon.

The rain will linger into Saturday and Sunday … then some models have a quick rain/snow mix by Sunday morning.

Really? Snow in the forecast for this weekend?

Just by looking at the models there are many uncertainties, and the models do not agree on anything meaningful.

First, the GFS shows a light dusting possible to the north/ northwest. Take note that this is total snow accumulation through the weekend, and it’s not much/anything.

sunday 12 pm snow

Second, the Canadian Model moves the dusting possibility to the south into Davidson County. Now, keep in mind that this is more than 3 days out so there will be uncertainties – forecast skill this far away is poor.

GEM 12 pm

Third, the European Model (which I cannot show) has no snow accumulation in Tennessee through the end of the week into Sunday at 12:00 pm.

The only agreement in the models I see right is that temperatures will be above the freezing mark on Sunday and any dusting of snow possible will likely be to the northwest.

Temperatures on Sunday will be above the freezing mark in the morning and afternoon. With the air temperature in the upper 30s and some areas in the low 40s – if snow falls it will then melt before reaching the surface. There is a possibility we will see a rain/snow mix on Sunday, but just by looking at the temperatures… Meh. Not buying it. We will keep you updated on the model updates through this week.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.