Drying and Clearing Out

Current Radar 

Strong southerly winds are calming down as the Wind Advisory becomes a memory. Overnight, we officially had a 44 MPH wind gust.

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As you can see from the above radar, and the below satellite image, the rain is almost over and the clouds aren’t too far away from clearing out.

The HRRR model thinks the clouds will start to break around 6 PM tonight.

HRRR WED 6 pm

After the clear out, we will dry out. Look also for a cooling trend through the rest of the week. Today our high temperature will reach 67° in the afternoon then we will clear out in the evening with a few clouds still in the area. Temperatures will then cool down to the upper 40s through the overnight into the morning on Thursday.

It will be sunny tomorrow with a high temperature of 62°. Surface high pressure will move into the area later in the afternoon and keep conditions quiet for the next couple of days.

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The sunshine will continue on Friday with temperatures only warming up into the upper 50s. It will be much drier with dew points below 30°.

Extended: Another cold front is on the way on Saturday to reinforce the dry air. There will be a few showers ahead of the front around lunchtime on Saturday. Temperatures will cool down into the the upper 20s Saturday night.

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This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Update on the Rain for Today, Tomorrow, & Especially Wednesday

Current Radar 

Monday

The severe weather threat for today is well off to our west with an “enhanced” risk issued for Texas and Oklahoma.

Monday SPC

A complex of showers will be moving eastward into our neck of woods today all due to a shortwave moving ahead of a strong upper level low.

Most of this will pass NW of us, but we will get a little wet.

Temperatures today will reach the low 60s in our area this afternoon under a mostly cloudy sky.

g13.2015320.1515_smMGM_vis

We will continue to see a few light showers through the afternoon into the evening hours as the system to the west moves slowly eastward.

Monday 5

Tuesday

The overcast skies will stick around on Tuesday and our high temperature will be 71°. It will be much warmer on Tuesday while the southerly winds filter in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

In fact, winds will be a big part of the weather story. Winds will pick up after lunch, then accelerate from there. Gusts over 30 MPH are likely; in fact, NWS-Nashville will probably need to issue a Wind Advisory.

The Storm Prediction Center has included us in a general thunderstorm outlook for Tuesday, but only barely.

Day2

Showers with some thunderstorms will be moving through the area Tuesday morning and afternoon. Not expecting any severe threat for Tuesday, just some rumbles of thunder.

TUESDAY midnight

TUESDAY 6 AM

The rain looks to clear out after lunchtime, but it will stay mostly cloudy. There will a few isolated showers lingering ahead of the line through the evening hours on Tuesday into early morning on Wednesday.

Wednesday

This looks like a heavy rain event with some rumbles of thunder.

Severe chances remain low, to non-existent. Even though wind shear is high, CAPE values will remain low.

As for ETA, the models have been consistent with timing — the line looks to be near the area during the morning rush hour commute.

WED 6 AM

The band of showers will be moving slowly across the area. We could receive over 1.5″ of rain, with locally heavier amounts. Although driving will be awful, flooding is not a big concern since we have seen below average precipitation totals for the month – only 0.64″ , which is 1.11″ below normal for the month of November.

Our high temperature on Wednesday will be 65°.

Extended: Once the cold front passes –  conditions will clear up and dry air will filter in. Temperatures will drop throughout the week under mostly sunny skies.

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This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Plenty of Sunshine This Weekend!

Current Radar 

Today – Plenty of Sunshine High: 61°

Happy Friday! Expect conditions to be pretty nice around our area! Surface high pressure will be keeping us dry with plenty of sunshine this afternoon.

latest_US_vis

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The dry air has officially settled in after a cold front passage a few days ago.  Dew points will stay in the upper 20s during lunchtime and afternoon hours. Northwesterly winds will also be a bit breezy in the afternoon with gusts up to 12 mph, then calm once we approach the evening hours.

FRIDAY NOON

Tonight will be quiet with temperatures rapidly cooling once the sun sets in the late afternoon. You’ll definitely want to keep the jacket handy for any evening plans.

With clear skies and calm winds – temperatures will drop into the upper 20s and low 30s. We will see a low temperature of 32°. Make sure to protect those plants! There is a Freeze Warning in effect from midnight tonight into Saturday morning at 9:00 am.

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Saturday – Sunny & Cool Waking Up: 32° (Brrrr) High: 59°

It will be nice football weather with temperatures slightly cooler than Friday. Dew points continue to stay in the 20s throughout the day.

Surface high pressure along with an upper level ridge will be in full control of our weather for the next few days.

GFS Sat Noon

Temperatures will drop to the freezing mark or below overnight on Saturday into Sunday. Another Freeze Warning may be needed for our area on Saturday. We will keep you updated on Twitter.

Sunday – The Sunshine Continues! Waking Up: 32° High: 62°

Temperatures are starting warm up as high pressure slides to the northeast. Dew points will increase into the low 30s in the afternoon.

Extended: We are tracking our next rainmaker (a cold front), which is the big story for next week.The weather pattern will begin to change as a strong upper level trough begins to move eastward. Our rain chance will quickly increase on Monday with isolated showers in the area mainly in the evening.

Temperatures will increase on Tuesday with highs in the upper 60s. It will be muggy on Tuesday and there is a chance for thunderstorms during the afternoon on Tuesday into the evening. We will be watching this system closely for the next couple of days. For now, here is what you can expect for the beginning of next week:

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This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Windy/Rainy Tonight, Clear Tomorrow

Current Radar 

First I would like to take the time to thank those men and women who have served and are currently serving our country. I hope you all have a wonderful Veterans Day!

We woke up to cool conditions with scattered clouds around our area. There’s a storm system forming out to our west:

latest_US_vis

This storm system will take shape and race east this afternoon and tonight.  Before the storms arrive, a strong south wind will start blowing in warmer, wetter air. Temps should soar into the 70°s.

Rain/storms are expected closer to midnight than sundown. Here’s the HRRR model’s timing:

We sit on the edge of the Storm Prediction Center’s “marginal” risk and “general thunderstorm” outlook for today.

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For us, we sit on the edge of a damaging wind event risk area.

We may not even see lightning tonight. Storms should weaken as they approach.

To be clear, the wind dynamics are impressive. There should be plenty of wind shear in place as the storms arrive, but other critical storm-making ingredients are missing. The biggest storm-making omission is convective available potential energy, or CAPE, which the models universally agree will be nil as the storms arrive. If this system had some CAPE, there would be reason for concern.

For good reason, SPC has excluded us from tornado and hail threats.

We’ll frequently update this forecast on Twitter @NashSevereWx.

Here’s the large scale view of the entire system.

WED 6 pm

THUR 6 AM

Waking up on Thursday – temperatures will be in the low 50s. There will be widespread showers overnight, probably clearing before the morning commute. Dry air will filter in from the northwest and dew points will drop into the low 40s and upper 30s.

RH 6 AM

You will want to take a jacket to any plans on Thursday evening. Temperatures will drop rapidly under a clear sky into the low 40s!

An upper level ridge will begin to build in as surface high pressure begins to move in on Friday. Temperatures will reach the upper 50s on Friday under a sunny sky.

FRID 6 AM

SAT 6 AM

Extended: The weekend looks nice with temperatures in the upper 50s on Saturday then warming up into the 60s on Sunday. We will stay under an upper level ridge and surface high pressure through the weekend.

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This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Update on Friday Morning Storms

Current Radar 

Today the Euro, GFS, and NAM models are showing some isolated showers moving northward throughout the area. We certainly aren’t expecting any big rain. Here’s the HRRR model through tonight:

Muggy conditions will continue through Thursday with dew points in the the low 60s. Temperatures will reach the mid to upper 70s this afternoon. We are currently under an upper level ridge and high surface pressure, but that will change Thursday evening.

namussfcwbg

When waking up on Thursday, temperatures will be in the low 60s. The Storm Prediction Center has included us in a marginal risk for thunderstorms through Friday at 6 AM, but we expect the real storm action to happen after them (on Friday morning).

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Thunderstorms are expected Friday morning after sunrise. The main threat will be damaging straight line winds as a surface cold front begins to move eastward across the southeast United States. An upper level positively tilted trough currently stationed to the west will begin to swing eastward moving into a more neutral tilt. By Thursday evening around 6:00 pm, positive vorticity advection will begin to move over the area. This means that there will be some upward forcing (shower development) moving into western and middle parts of Tennessee.

The tornado threat will be very low due to the surface winds mainly out of the southwest. Tornadoes love winds that turn clockwise the further up you go, but we are not getting much of that Friday morning.

The rain ahead of the cold front will begin to move through our area Friday morning into the lunchtime hours. The good news is – models show the line of storms losing its steam as it progress east/southeast. I still think the NAM model is under estimating the amount of rain we will receive Friday morning into Friday evening. The Storm Prediction includes us in a marginal risk for Friday as well.

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The main threat is for damaging winds up to or beyond 50 mph.

The cold front is expected to pass through overnight on Friday into early Saturday morning. You can really see the cold air arrive from the north Saturday morning. Dew points will drop into the upper 30s and our high temperature will reach 60° Saturday afternoon. Showers will be to the southeast after 12:00 pm on Saturday.

SAT 6 am SAT 6 PM

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

A Few Showers Today, Some Sun Tomorrow

Current Radar 

Today – A Few Light Showers & Muggy – High: 71°

We will continue to see overcast skies through lunchtime with a few breaks in the afternoon.

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We will see some showers through the day while an upper level shortwave swings over the area and a surface low stationed to the south moves northeast. The bulk of the rain is expected to stay in the eastern parts of Tennessee and northern Georgia.

MONDAY 12 PM MONDAY AM

Muggy conditions will continue with dew points in the upper 50s and low 60s today. Winds out of the northeast will be fairly calm today.

Conditions will begin to clear up this evening with concerns for dense fog developing tonight around the area.

Tuesday – Partly Cloudy & Warmer – High: 75°

Dense fog will not mix out before the morning commute so take it easy in the AM.

An upper level ridge will begin to build over the area. Waking up on Tuesday there will be some scattered clouds in the area.

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Now that we will finally see some sunshine on Tuesday – temperatures will warm up into the mid 70s. Muggy conditions will stick around (no pun intended) with dew points in the 60s.

Wednesday – Dry – High: 74°

Upper level ridge will keep conditions dry on Wednesday with surface high pressure stationed to the east. Temperatures continue to stay pretty mild for the month of November.

We will see a partly cloudy sky on Wednesday with mostly high clouds in the area.

Extended: The rain returns on Thursday as an upper level trough moves into the area. Surface low to the west will begin to move eastward while showers develop ahead of the low. Looks like another wet weekend ahead. We will keep you updated this week!

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This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Nice Today, But Rainy & Dreary Halloween

Current Radar – behold the rain approaching from our SW

Happy Friday!

Today – Dry – High: 65°

High pressure will keep us dry today with winds out of the NE bringing in drier air. Dew points will be in the low 40s this afternoon.

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Showers are developing over Texas due to a surface low moving eastward. We will continue to stay under  dry, high pressure this afternoon while showers amplify moving into Arkansas.

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Halloween – Rainy & Dreary – Waking up: 46° High: 65°

As the high pressure moves off to the east clouds will begin to build in around midnight Friday into early Saturday morning. Showers with thunderstorms possible begin to move into the area possibly as early as Saturday 1:00 AM, if you believe the NAM4 model:

SATURDAY 1 AM

1 am clouds

Other models delay the arrival of the rain until after noon.

The bulk of the rain from the low to west will continue through the morning hours into lunchtime.

SAT 1 PM

It will be muggy in the afternoon with winds out of south at 5-10 mph.

Saturday 7:00 PM – 63° Overcast

We think you will definitely need the rain jackets and umbrellas for Trick-or-Treating in the evening.

SAT 7 PM

 

The good news is we are not expecting any severe weather for Halloween. The models seem have only a total of .08 inches of rain from Saturday morning to Saturday 7:00 pm. There will be a few breaks in the rain all day, including after 7:00 pm. From Saturday morning to midnight it looks like we will receive 0.22 inches of rain, with most of it falling later in the evening.

SAT 10 PM

We are not convinced regarding the timing of this. We will update this website later today, hopefully with increased confidence on ETAs. Of course, we will continue to update on Twitter @NashSevereWx.

Don’t forget to turn the clocks back an hour before you go to bed Saturday evening!

Sunday – Rain Continues – High: 65°

Models show rain still in the area moving eastward through the morning and afternoon hours. An upper level low will lift northeast during the day.

We will not see a break in the clouds until later on Monday.

Extended: Clearing Monday afternoon with an upper level ridge beginning to build in Monday evening into Tuesday morning. Temperatures will begin to warm up slightly into the mid 70s by Tuesday with plenty of sunshine.

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This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Dreary Today & Monster Mash Tomorrow

Current Radar


Here is your spooky forecast! 

Today – Dreary High: 67°

The clouds will stick around today while isolated showers move eastward as an upper level shortwave swings across the area today. We will start the morning out with overcast skies then begin to see breaks in the clouds by the afternoon.

g13.2015301.1515_smMGM_vis

Dew points will be in the upper 50°s today, so still fairly “wet.” Fortunately, a cold front will sweep through this afternoon then drier air will filter in early Thursday morning.

 

Thursday – Weather that will make you do the Monster Mash! Waking Up: 47° High: 68°

Drier air will begin to move in along with surface high pressure. There will be a few scattered clouds in our area with some isolated showers in the morning. Not anticipating a washout for Thursday morning!

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NAM THU 4

Friday – Cooler Waking Up: 40° High: 61°

Before you get your Halloween weekend started – temperatures will be much cooler!

Dew points will continue to decrease into the upper 30s by lunchtime on Friday.

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We will remain under high pressure while showers begin to develop well west of us in eastern Texas. The showers will move eastward into Arkansas by Friday evening.

There will just a few scattered clouds in the area on Friday.

Make sure to take a jacket to the Haunted House in the evening!

Halloween Forecast: It looks like you will need the rain jacket for Trick-of-Treating on Saturday evening. The showers to the west will begin to move into the area, but the bulk of the rain will stay well south of us in Mississippi. We will keep you updated on timing as the weekend approaches. 

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This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Rain Messing With Our Weekend

Current Radar

Happy Friday!

Another warm day is in store for us with high temperatures reaching the low 80s around the area. There will be a some clouds in the area with dew points in the upper 50s.

A surface cold front to the west will be moving our direction this afternoon.

namussfcwbg

Below is the satellite view. It looks like it’ll mess with our weekend.

latest_US_vis

Rain will stay well off to west today due to upward forcing ahead of the cold front. As the boundary moves eastward it will continue to gain strength.

We will see an increase in high cloud cover in the afternoon.

By the time the evening approaches – showers will be moving into the area ahead of the cold front. We are not expecting anything severe.

The bulk of the rain will begin to approach the area overnight tonight.

SAT 3AM

 

Showers will linger in the morning hours.

Sat 7 am

Temperatures will be cooler on Saturday with a high temperature reaching 72°.

Saturday will be pretty dreary. We will see showers throughout the day receiving up to half an inch of rain with locally heavier amounts. (Here is the total precipitable water amounts from Friday morning valid through Sunday morning.

SAT 1 pm

 

Rain will continue on Sunday with high temperatures much cooler in the upper 60s. Dew points will remain in the low 60s on Sunday and we will begin to see breaks in the clouds by lunchtime.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Pleasant Monday!

Current Radar – Pinch & Zoom

It was a cool start to our Monday morning, but don’t worry – temperatures will warm up into the upper 60s this afternoon  slightly below normal.

Expect pleasant conditions under a sunny sky all thanks to surface high pressure stationed to the east.

namussfcwbg

The weather pattern will not change much this week. It will be quiet all across the area Monday through Thursday.

Tuesday – Slightly Warmer – Waking Up: 44° High: 72°

High pressure continues to control our weather on Tuesday with dry conditions while temperatures warm up into the 70s.

Winds out of the south will slowly filter in moisture from the Gulf. Dew points will slowly increase into the upper 30s and low 40s in the afternoon.

Wednesday – Pleasant – Waking Up: 48° High: 76°

We will continue to warm up by mid week with high pressure still over the area. Still pleasant with dew points in the low 50s by afternoon. Still want to keep that chapstick handy!

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Extended: With a surface ridge in place and sunny conditions – we will see a warming trend as we approach the end of the week. 80s return until a dry cold front moves eastward and sweeps through this weekend. A few isolated showers can be expected, but overall cloud cover will be mainly associated with the front. 

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This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.