Today – Clouds Decreasing – High: 41°
I hope you are having a great week so far!
Clouds will break up late the morning into the afternoon. It will be mostly sunny this afternoon with temperatures below normal in the low 40s.
High pressure — the great wind-direction maker — will be moving in from the northwest.
Today the pressure location is keeping us chilly.
Thursday – Warming Up – Waking Up: 25° High: 51°
Freezing wake-up temps will give way to 50s during the afternoon. High pressure will move east and past us, turning the winds to the south and warming us up. Enjoy the sunshine!
Overnight Snow? Nope! An upper level trough will sweep through the eastern portion of the state late on Thursday night into early Friday morning. There will be a few flurries for the eastern portion of the state, but all of it will remain north and east of us. Sorry kids…
Friday – Slightly Cooler – Waking Up: 30° High: 49°
The upper level trough passing over us will decrease our temperatures on Friday.
But, no worries! It will be mostly sunny, and winds will again shift to out of the south on Friday. This will help temperatures warm up for the weekend ahead.
Moisture will also increase over the weekend with dew points near 50°.
Nice and mild. Quite hospitable for the NHL All-Star Weekend. Those coming from out of town should plan on rain Sunday night, but not a big deal. We expect no travel delays on our end.
Severe Weather Tuesday?
Storm Prediction Center has already outlooked us for severe weather potential next Tuesday. pic.twitter.com/oRLcDZF60X
— NashSevereWx (@NashSevereWx) January 27, 2016
This is a bit of an unusual move by the Storm Prediction Center. “Day 7” outlooks are uncommon, and they reflect a general idea that severe weather may happen somewhere inside the yellow circle.
We wrote about this potential severe setup Sunday, fully expecting severe weather ingredients to disappear from the models. It did not disappear. The models have held on to it, and now the SPC has it in the above outlook. The Euro model puts all the stuff you need to make severe weather in that yellow area Tuesday. The GFS a little less so, but all of it is still there:
–An upper level jet of 100+ mph winds at 18,000 feet screaming overhead, a strong surface cold front sweeping across, and strong surface low pressure tracking near/along the Ohio River, which is the “right” spot for strong or severe weather.
–Dewpoints as high as 61° (per Euro model), which is very high for early February. If we get this amount of humidity, there will be plenty of energy available to power up some storms.
NWS-Nashville commented “conditions appear favorable for some strong thunderstorms with this system even at this extended range, but this is of course very subject to change and [we] will have to wait until closer to time to see how the synoptic and mesoscale details evolve.”
How Concerned We Are: outside of range/way too soon. Freaking out based on Day 7 data is a bad way to live. Just something to watch…closely.
This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.
Categories: Forecast Blogs