The 13z HRRR model run shows supercells and multicell storm clusters forming ahead of a cold front this afternoon.
These storms will rotate. Some rotating storms will be capable of producing damaging straight line winds, tornadoes, and hail.
Author: Maddie
Warm and Light-Rainy Today, Cold Blast Begins Tonight
Let’s Talk About Rain/Storms Late Sunday Into Monday Morning.
On Your Mark… Get Set…
Brrrrrrr!!!
Damp and Cool, Trick or Treat Forecast
The generally dry weather we experience in the fall is taking a break as we deal with some cold gross rain behind the recent cold front.
Rain This Morning
While most of the rain for the day fell this morning, drizzle and mist will likely stick around for the rest of the afternoon. This will make the 57° high feel pretty chilly.
Scattered Showers Today, Rain Returns on Sunday
Temperature highs will be in the low 80’s and lows will be in the high 60’s. Chances for scattered showers are possible today (HRRR shown below).
The model is showing that some showers pop up around 5 and are off and on through the evening. Rain today and tonight should not be heavy, but we can’t rule out a rumble of thunder.
Sunday = Rain
Rain is expected in the early morning on Sunday. Rain continues off and on through lunchtime or maybe mid-afternoon (3-4 pm). The evening will be mostly overcast with still a chance for light occasional showers later into the night as things move out.
Some of the Sunday rain could be on the stronger side. The only concerns would be strong wind gusts and heavy downpours.
Rest of the Week
A closed low will circle around our area… see the morning AFD for an explanation.
A shortwave will dive south out of Minnesota/Wisconsin toward Arkansas Sunday night and quickly become a closed low by Monday evening. The closed low will spend the rest of the work week meandering around the Southeast and eventually the Ohio River Valley. This will put us in a cloudy, cooler, and wetter pattern than what we have seen over the past week. The highest PoPs areawide after Sunday will be Tuesday afternoon as the upper low lifts back north and west
Flash Flood Watch This Weekend
Rain/Storms Continue, Flash Flood Emergency to Our West
Editor’s Note: Flash Floods. We’ve been through them. They’re a painful reminder of how quickly weather can take away what has taken years to make…homes, businesses and beautiful landscapes. Today, our friends just to our west are dealing with catastrophic flooding with well over 11 inches of rain, maybe much more, falling just this morning. The beautiful Piney River is roaring at 31.8 ft at the time of this writing, a staggering 7.8 ft above MAJOR flood stage. If you have friends in Humphreys, Hickman, Dickson or Houston Counties, please check on them by phone/text if you’re able. They’re going to need much to rebuild what water has taken away today.
Heat & Humidity Return
Our cooler temps, lower humidity streak is over. Humidity is up today. It’ll stay there for the foreseeable future. Temps return to normal for August.
No Major Rain Threat
There are a few thunderstorms south of us this morning. They’re moving east and won’t bother us. We may see light rain this morning but the bigger rain and storms should be east of us all weekend. Here is the HRRR model showing the weekend: