Wind Advisory, Much Needed Rain Tonight

Still the two main headlines of today are the gusty winds and rain overnight.

Wind Advisory

A Wind Advisory will be in effect from 6pm today thru 6am Tuesday. Wind gusts up to 45 mph are possible. As of 4pm, BNA has already gusted up to 28 mph and winds will continue to howl. Secure outdoor furniture, trashcans, Christmas decorations, God’s frisbees, etc.

Also, with these gusty winds, any fire will spread quickly. Burning is prohibited in Davidson, and there is a burn ban in effect for Williamson.

Heavy Rain Overnight

We finally get some much needed rain. Although it won’t completely solve our drought, it will help.

The HRRR model (above) shows:

  • rain starting around 6-8pm
  • heaviest rain ETA of 1-2am
  • rain ending around daylight Tuesday morning, maybe a lingering shower or two during the day

There is no severe weather threat for us, that is all well to our south in Mississippi and Louisiana. You may hear a rumble of thunder or two overnight, but you are all good to roll to the other side of the pillow.

Expected rainfall totals are around 1″ – 1.5″.

Cooler and (Mostly) Dry Rest of the Week

Cooler and drier air will filter in Wednesday and hang around for the rest of the week. Thanksgiving morning we will wake up around the freezing mark, although temps rebound well for the afternoon.

Maybe some light rain chances overnight Thursday, but models aren’t in too much agreement. If there is any, it would be light and NBD.

Black Friday shopping weather looks a-okay.

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Windy Monday, Heavy Rain Monday Night

Two main messages for Monday. Let’s discuss.

Winds Ahead of the Rain

Winds *before* the rain tomorrow will be gusty.

Gusts up to 30-45mph are possible Monday afternoon into Monday night. A Wind Advisory will probably be issued at some point. Secure outdoor furniture, X-Mas decorations, etc.

Finally, Some Rain

Some light showers are possible Monday morning, but this won’t be the main event.

HRRR model (above) shows:

  • rain starting around 5 or 6pm
  • heaviest rain ETA 11p – midnight
  • gusty winds possible along line of heaviest rain

We are *not* included in any severe weather chances.

Rainfall totals look very beneficial, around 1″.

Some more light showers possible Tuesday, but majority of the day will be dry.

Cooler and Probably Dry Back Half of the Week

Cooler and drier air will filter in Wednesday and stick around for the rest of the week.

Thanksgiving still looking like temps around average. Some models want to throw some light rain in the mix, but others disagree. We’ll have to wait and see.

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Rain Is Comin’ Monday

Nice quiet day today, tomorrow will be about the same. Temps near the freezing point as you wake up.

Much Needed Rain

We finally get to start making up some ground on our rainfall deficit.

Day 3 Projected Rainfall Totals

Current forecast has around 1.5″ for us Monday into Tuesday. Yes please.

Models hinting rain starting Monday morning, with the bulk of the precip occurring Monday night.

Severe weather chances stay to our south, although we may get some thunder.

Wind gusts up to 25 mph possible Monday + Tuesday, secure your hats.


We’ll cool off and dry out once the front moves thru, allowing for a cool and dry Wednesday + Thanksgiving.

Peanuts gif. A scene from A Charlie Brown Thanksgiving. At an outdoor dinner table, Chef Snoopy sharpens a knife, preparing to carve a big roast turkey. Woodstock stands on the table, clutching his wings together in excitement.

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Drizzle Moving Out, Dry Weekend, Solid Rain Monday/Tuesday

Leftover drizzle should move out over the next couple hours. You can always check the radar here: Radar – Nashville Severe Weather

We get a dry Saturday + Sunday, cooler temps than what we’ve been dealing with this week. We may get close to the freezing mark Sunday morning.

Much Needed Rain Coming

Models continue to indicate we’ll get a good soak Monday night into Tuesday.

Rainfall totals currently look to be in the 1-2″ range, which would be very much appreciated.

The good news is it looks like we’ll just get the rain and stay out the severe weather conversation that is happening to our south. Can’t rule out some rumbles of thunder for us tho.

Wednesday and Turkey Day we’ll dry out and have cooler weather. Freezing temps look to be possible Wednesday and Thursday morning.

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Showers Tomorrow, Legit Rain Monday/Tuesday, Look @ Turkey Day

A toasty 77° today at BNA, one degree shy of tying the daily record high.

Some light rain chances come around tomorrow.

HRRR model (above) shows light on/off rain from morning until evening. I see no reason to alter plans, should be mostly gone by FNL kickoff.

Rest of the weekend will be dry and temps around average for this time of the year, maybe some frost Sunday morning.

A Good Soaking

Timing still is fuzzy, but late Monday into Tuesday we look to finally start making a dent in our rainfall deficit.

Models currently hinting at rainfall totals around one inch, which wouldn’t solve all our problems, but it’ll certainly help.

Currently not worried about severe weather with this system, but we’re keeping an eye on it.

Chilly + Dry Turkey Day

After the cold front moves thru Tuesday, our temps will drop a good bit. We’ll clear out, setting us up for a cool and dry Thanksgiving.

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Rain, Please.

Only chance today at some rain would be some sprinkles, defying the odds against the very dry air we have in place. Unlikely, but if they make it to the ground, NBD.

Thursday will be dry with high temps running about 15° above average.

Friday our rain chances return but won’t provide much.

Relatively low chance at receiving at least 0.25″, which still isn’t a lot. No help to our drought situation.

The HRRR model only goes out until noon on Friday, it shows raining arriving around that time. Can’t imagine it would last very long, I think your dinner plans should be dry, but don’t quote me on that. We’ll have to wait and see.

Rest of the weekend looks uneventful, maybe some frost possible Sunday morning.

Some Legit Rain?

Signs are currently pointing to a legit soaking for the beginning of next week. Looks like we could finally at least start to make up some of that rainfall we’ve been missing out on. More deets on that as we get closer.

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No Drought Buster This Week

Seems just about everyone got a great glimpse of the gorgeous sunset tonight.

Tomorrow we might see some sprinkles.

The HRRR model (above) shows some sprinkle chances tomorrow afternoon and evening. I have my doubts if any rain actually makes it to the ground, we’ll be really dry. At the most, just some sprinkles.

Thursday will be dry before some more rain chances Friday.

Don’t get your hopes up though.

Our rain chances look…minimal. We likely won’t receive more than 0.25″. Good news is your outdoor plans shouldn’t be rained out. Bad news is we need rain.

The weekend looks dry with temps around average.

Eyeing next Monday as a legit potential rainmaker, but we’ll have to wait and see.

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Two Chances* At Some Rain This Week

High temps will run several degrees above average for the work week, not feeling very mid-November like.

Our two “main” chances of rain this week will be Wednesday and Friday.

Wednesday:

  • these chances look very meh for us
  • most, if not all the rain will stay to our south

Friday:

  • if we do see rain this week, this is the most likely day
  • timing still fuzzy, maybe some rain for playoff FNL
  • no severe weather expected
  • will drop the temps a tad for the rest of the weekend

Rainfall totals look to be around 0.25″ the next 7 days. Not the amount we need.

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Change Is Coming…Eventually

The upcoming week will fairly consistent, only “hiccup” will be some rain chances Wednesday thru Friday. I use “hiccup” lightly because we need rain – bad.

Although rain chances exist, it doesn’t look as if it would be much rain.

Day 11 image not available

7 day rainfall totals look like uhhhhh not much.

However.

There is some good news.

Down the road in the 10-14 day range, we see a more favorable pattern for above-average rain which would be superrrr cool.

If you like winter temps, those graphs don’t have the best news for you, but winter will come around eventually.

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Pretty Please Don’t Start A Fire

Low relative humidity + gusty winds + dry ground =

Burn ban in effect for both of our counties. It may be bonfire weather but just subtract the bonfire part.

We are about 8.61″ below our average rainfall for the year. Looking ahead at the next 7 days, it doesn’t look like we’ll be making up much ground.

Day 11 image not available

Best rain chances appear to be Wednesday but doesn’t look like it’ll give us much.

Temps stay around average to slightly above average.

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