Chilly Trick or Treating, Hard Freeze Overnight

You’ll really have to earn the candy tonight as you fight a jerk NNW wind. Winds will pick up over the next few hours, gusting up to 20mph. As of 6:30p, temperatures are in the mid 40s, but will quickly drop to the upper 30s by 8pm, but with the wind it’ll feel like the lower 30s. Might want to hit a light jog in-between houses to keep warm.

Video gif. Pumpkin Dance man in a black unitard with a jack-o-lantern on his head does dances from side-to-side in front of a graveyard backdrop.

Overnight temps will continue to drop and we’ll deal with a hard freeze. Official low at BNA is 28° (daily low record is 27°, it’ll be close) but your own backyard will likely be colder. Wind chills in the morning will be near 20°. Protect the 4 P’s, and the C – candy.

For People: Minimize time outdoors. Prepare for power outages. Check on elderly & other vulnerable people to make sure they are ok. For Pets: Keep your pets warm, dry, & indoors as much as possible. For Pipes: Insulate pipes if possible. Open up sink cabinets to expose pipes to heated air. Disconnect hoses & turn off water to sprinklers. For Plants: Know their temperature thresholds. If possible, cover them before the cold weather sets in to help retain some heat.

Because of the hard freeze, there is a Freeze Warning from 10pm tonight until 10am Wednesday. Freeze Warnings are a little different, the NWS will only issue them for the first one or two freezes of the season, and then we are on our own. So after tonight, they won’t issue anymore Freeze Warnings, but we will still freeze.

We’ll likely freeze again overnight Wednesday, and possibly again Thursday night into Friday morning.

High temps will slowly warm up throughout the week, getting up into the low 70s by Saturday and Sunday.

No rain chances to talk about until maybe Monday.

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Freeze Warnings, Streaks Ending, Cold Candy Getting

The cold front has pushed thru and brought some chilly (chili?) weather. The light rain will shortly end, leaving us with a dry, jerk north wind.

TV gif. Kit Harington as Jon in Game of Thrones, wearing full winter gear, grimaces as wind and snow pummels him in an icy landscape.

Freeze Warnings

First freezes of the season mean Freeze Warnings have been issued, 3am to 9am Tuesday, and again 10pm Tuesday thru 10am Wednesday. “Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.” Prepare as needed.

We’ll likely wake up to freezing temps again Thursday morning and possibly Friday morning, but no more Freeze Warnings will be issued for the rest of the year.

Earning The Candy

Bad News: candy getting looks chilly, with wind chills in the upper 30s.

Good News: it’ll be dry, so at least you don’t have to be cold and wet, just cold.

Rainless Streak Gone

Thanks to the cold front, our 24-day streak without measurable rainfall has come to an end.

This is the longest such streak we’ve had in 22 years which is pretty remarkable.

After the rain ends today, there’s no more rain chances to talk about for at least the next six days. Not the best news, the little rainfall we receive today won’t do too much to help our drought.

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Winter Is Coming.

Thankfully the rain held off for the Oilers dub, not a half bad Sunday. Temps are in the 70s for the last time for at least the next six days.

Overnight the cold front will bring rain and open the door for colder temps.

The HRRR model (above) shows on/off showers nearly all day Monday. Rolly ball sports may be in danger of rain outs, although rainfall totals will not be much, generally around 0.25″.

Temperatures will not move much at all throughout the day and will drop to around freezing Monday night into Tuesday morning.

We’ll be dealing with morning temps near or below freezing for a majority of the week.

Prepare Season 7 GIF by Game of Thrones

Trick or treating looks dry, but temps will be in the low 40s/upper 30s. Time to trick or treat efficiently.

High temperatures slowly warm throughout the week, getting up into the upper 60s by the end of the week, mornings stay chilly.

After Monday, there’s no rain in the forecast.

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Most of the Rain Misses Us, The Cold Won’t

Besides a few stray showers, not a half-bad Saturday lies ahead of us. Temps already in the upper 70s as of 10am.

Sunday will have temperatures in the 70s for the last time for a while, rain chances also pick up.

As shown above by the HRRR model, a majority of the rain will hold off to the NW of us, but some of us, especially Davidson Co. will (finally) see some rainfall. Hopefully it can hold off until after the Titans game, but ponchos for tailgates, the game, and the after party look necessary. Lightning delays look unlikely.

The Cool Down

Monday still looks like the day where we get our first real taste of winter. The cold front will have some showers along it as it pushes thru Monday AM, and will slowly drop temperatures throughout the day.

Frost looks possible Tuesday AM, with temps not warming up much throughout the day.

Not Great GIF by Wellington Paranormal

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Mostly Rain-Free Saturday, Rainy Sunday + Monday

Some sprinkles possible throughout the remainder of the day, but I see no need to alter any plans. Maybe keep a rain jacket close.

Saturday will be much of the same, mostly dry, some brief light showers are possible, again, nothing seems to be plan-altering.

Sunday rain chances pick up, ponchos look like they should be needed for the Titans (Oilers?) game.

HRRR model (above) shows our best chances of rain in the morning at least thru the afternoon. Nothing severe, lightning delays look highly unlikely, just some rain.

The Big Cool Down

Monday is the big day. A cold front looks to sweep thru, still looks like sometime in the morning. This will bring us some showers, along with winter-like temperatures.

The EURO model (above) shows the front slowly moving on thru the area Monday. Some showers will accompany the front, and temps will slowly drop throughout the day.

Trick or treating still looks cold and windy. Be prepared to really earn that candy.

Wednesday and Thursday morning look to start below freezing.

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Moderate To Severe Drought With Very Little Rain To Help

Drought Monitor Update

The latest drought monitor update come out today and did not have any encouraging results, unsurprisingly. The southern half of WillCo. is now under a Severe Drought (2/4), with the rest of us remaining in a Moderate Drought (1/4). With our lack of any recent rainfall, this isn’t a shocker. But is there any relief coming?

Day 11 image not available

Short answer: no. Total rainfall in the next 7 days looks to be only around 0.25″ – 0.5″. It looks to get worse before it gets better.

When Is Said Rain Coming?

Thankfully soon, because the bosses were about to start making me wash cars. Chances will stick around all weekend, but they will stay low and most will see very little.

HRRR model (above) shows light showers possible Friday afternoon and evening. No rainouts, not concerned about thunder/lightning either.

Majority of the rain stays to our NW Saturday and Sunday, although can’t totally rule out a shower swinging on thru, I wouldn’t let it alter any of your outdoor plans. Just keep a rain jacket handy.

Winter Is Coming.

A cold front is expected to push thru sometime Monday (looking like sometime in the AM right now), bringing us some showers, and a major temperature drop.

Trick-or-treat continues to look blustery and chilly, at least dry?

Next Wednesday and Thursday morning we look to wake up below freezing. Our first, but not last of the season.

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Finally Some Rain + A Cold Front On The Way

Another pleasant day and tomorrow will be more of the same. Still a lot warmer that what we are used to this time of year.

Rain chances finally come back around Friday.

The HRRR model (above) shows showers creepin’ in Friday AM and staying on/off throughout the day. Any rain we see would be light, so not thinking any rainouts.

Rain chances stick around for the rest of the weekend, mostly confined to the NW of us, rainfall totals here look to be around 0.25″. Not drought-busting, but it won’t hurt.

The cold front that fall fans have been waiting on is in our sights. Current ETA guess is at some point Monday. This will have some showers with it, but it’ll also bring in some legit fall weather.

This front will knock our high temps down about 30°, along with giving us our first shot at some frost + seeing the freezing mark.

Trick-or-treating still looks dry and cold. Time to start thinking about some warm costumes.

Friends gif. David Schwimmer as Ross talks on a phone, then holds it up to the ear of a jack-o-lantern headed figure sitting beside him.

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A Guesscasting Of Halloween, Among Other Things

Another nice day, doesn’t seem like late October tho, and it won’t for the next few days either.

We finally get something to talk about Friday, when rain chances *finally* come back around.

The EURO model (above) shows some decent rain moving thru our area Friday, still too early to nail down a specific ETA, but generally sometime during the day. No severe weather expected, but maybe a rumble of thunder.

Rain chances stay low, but still existent throughout the weekend (no rainouts expected) until a cold front comes thru at some point. The current thinking is at some time Sunday or Monday. This cold front would bring 1) showers 2) some legit fall weather back.

Looking at the Blend of Models, it has a good clear line of when that cold front comes on thru. Bringing in our first potential chance at a frost/freeze as November comes around.

As of right now, trick-or-treating looks cold, but dry. This is still a week away, so we are still in itsanyonesguess territory.

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Not Feelin’ Like Fall

If you were to solely look at the high temps for the next seven days, you would probably not guess this is a forecast for late October. Well, here we are.

Temperature-wise, we stay very steady for the forecast. Upper 70s/low 80s for high temps, with a jacket being required in the morning.

Precipitation-wise, uhhhh there’s not much to say. No rain chances until Friday, and those look weaksauce.

Brentwood has begun to say burning stuff is a big “nono” because of how dry it is. Just how dry are we?

Pretty darn dry.

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Dry, But Nice Weather

Temperature wise, this week looks great. Maybe even a little too warm with high temps reaching the 80° mark by Thursday – around 10° above average. Dewpoint slowly increase throughout the week, getting slightly muggy by the end of the week.

This week also looks dry, no rain chances to talk about until Thursday/Friday, and those chances look very meh. Which is great news for your outdoor plans, however, we are in a Moderate Drought and lowkey need the rain.

Friends gif. Matthew Perry as Chandler staring pensively out the window at the rain.

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