Cold Mornings and Mild Afternoons

Started out with temps below freezing this morning, but plenty of sunshine has propelled our temperatures into the mid to upper 50s.

This will be a reoccurring theme throughout the work week.

Rain chances will increase Saturday/Sunday thanks to a low-pressure system to our south. Usually around this time of year, if we mention a low-pressure system to our south, we’d normally have to talk about snow. However, with no cold air in place, we’ll be stuck with just rain chances.

Rain chances look questionable this far out. Any specific details will be ironed out as we get closer to the weekend.

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Uneventful Week Ahead

With high pressure dominating the region, we’ll be in a calm, unchanging weather pattern for a while. I like calm.

Besides today, with high temps in the mid 40s, the rest of the week we’ll see highs in the mid to upper 50s. AM temps will be around freezing.

No rain chances to speak of until maybe Saturday, and those look questionable.

Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks suggest above average temperatures and below average rainfall. Good for quiet weather, not great news for the drought.

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Calm and Cool Weather Ahead

A cool day is made colder by a jerk wind from the NW, making it feel several degrees colder than it actually is.

Thankfully, calm weather is in the forecast for this week. No rain in the forecast until maybe Saturday.

We’ll wake up each day this week with temps around the freezing mark. High temps will reach the mid 50s by Tuesday.

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Tornado Watch Until 7pm, Severe Weather Potential This Afternoon/Evening

A Tornado Watch has been issued for both of our counties until 7pm tonight.

Our probabilities from the Storm Prediction Center are:

  • 15% chance of damaging straight-line winds within 25 miles
  • 15% chance of severe hail within 25 miles
  • 10% of a tornado within 25 miles (10% or greater chance of EF2+ tornado)

Our main threat today continues to be damaging straight-line winds, but severe hail and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

Timing

Best chance for potential severe weather appears to be from 4pm – 9pm. However, severe storms are possible before this timeframe. It will be important to be weather aware all day.

The HRRR model (above) shows the main line of storms arriving for us around 5-6pm, give or take an hour or so. Storms are possible ahead of the main line. ETAs will continue to be updated throughout the day.

Preparing

It’s been a while since we’ve dealt with any severe weather. Now is a good time to review where to go *if* a warning is issued for you.

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*If* a warning is issued for any part of our two counties, we will go live on our YouTube channel: Nashville Severe Weather @NashSevereWx – YouTube

We’ll be tweeting updates as needed on X (Twitter) all day long.

Heartrates can go up when talk of severe weather comes around and that’s okay. Here’s an article we have on storm anxiety.


Sunday and beginning of next week looks dry and cool.

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Severe Weather Chances Saturday Afternoon/Evening

It’s been… /checks calendar/ …a while since we’ve talked about any severe weather chances.

Although it is December, this is not unusual for us. We are in the midst of our second severe weather season, and although it has been quiet/non-existent so far, it has finally awoken.

Let’s dive right in and discuss.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked us with a:

  • 15% chance of damaging straight-line winds within 25 miles of a given point
  • 15% chance of large hail within 25 miles of a given point
  • 5% of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point

What changed? The past few days we’ve talked about how only one or two of the ingredients needed for severe weather were forecasted to be in place. Model data now shows a higher chance of more ingredients (more CAPE aka storm fuel, higher dewpoints) coming together and now here we are.

First things first, some light showers are possible tonight after sunset. These would be non-severe. They will be few and far between.

Additionally, some showers/storms are possible before the timeframe for severe weather, Saturday AM thru lunch. These would be scattered, could contain heavy rain and potentially lightning.

Severe Timing

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The best guess for our potential severe weather looks to be from 3pm-8pm tomorrow. Take notice of the note in the image, strong storms are possible outside of this window, and timing may need to be adjusted.

The HRRR model, above, agrees with the estimate on the timing for potential severe storms. The HRRR and a few other models show the possibility of severe storms ahead of the “main” line. These storms would have to be watched just as much as the line.

The HRRR is one of many models that is looked at, some show the timing sooner, some show later. We’ll keep you updated on ETAs as they come in.

Our main threat tomorrow afternoon/evening is damaging straight-line winds and large hail. The chance for a tornado or two is low, but not zero. Check back frequently for updates, as this forecast may change.

If you hear about any snow chances, that is exclusively for the Plateau, temperatures will not get that cold for us.

Rainfall totals from tonight thru late Saturday look around 1.5″ – 2″, very beneficial for us.

After the front moves thru Saturday night, temps will take a tumble and we’ll experience a lot cooler temps to start the week. AM temps will be around the freezing mark all week. No credible rain chances beyond Saturday night.

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Drought Improvement, Light Rain Tonight Into Friday AM, Weekend Uncertainty

I’ll start off with good news, and that is that our drought situation has improved. It is not gone, but it has improved.

Davidson has been left with a Moderate Drought, while WillCo. is under a Severe Drought. Better than the Extreme Drought we were dealing with.

The bad news is that over the next 7 days there doesn’t look to be much help with that, although there are some rain chances, so let’s discuss.


Tonight light rain will spread across the area, lasting overnight into Friday morning.

HRRR model (above) shows the majority of the rain falling while most of us are asleep, with only a few showers left to deal with Friday AM rush hour. Overnight, winds could pick up, with gusts up to 35 – 40mph possible, secure Santa and his reindeer before they go flying.

Most of the rain should be gone by Friday lunch; your Friday evening plans, including the Franklin tree lighting look dry.

Saturday low rain chances reemerge.

The HRRR model (above) shows a majority of the rain staying to our SE, but a few stray showers coming in during the morning to lunch hours. The system should pull away in the afternoon, leaving evening plans dry, but confidence is a little shaky in that.

Sunday rain chances exist, but they are low. Models are confused on timing, will have to wait and see on that.

Rainfall totals from this weekend look to be in the 0.25″ – 0.75″ range.

No severe weather chances exist with any of this.

Interested Like It GIF by BH90210

Temps now thru early next week will run around average to slightly above average. We’ll enjoy 60s for high temps this weekend. We’ll stay away from freezing temps until mid next-week.

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Light Rain Overnight Thursday, Low Rain Chances Stick Around For The Weekend

A few locations might reach 32° tonight, but other than that, we’ll take a pause on sub-freezing temps for a little while. Strong southerly flow will help our high temps reach the 60’s Thursday – Sunday.

Before the rain, wind gusts up to 20-25mph will be possible, paired with our drought, fires could spread quickly.

Rain chances return Thursday night.

The HRRR model (above) shows rain moving in ~9-10pm tomorrow, subject to change. The majority of the rain will fall overnight, ending before sunrise Friday. Scattered showers are possible during the day Friday, but those look to be NBD. Rainfall totals look underwhelming and not much help to our drought, only 0.25″ – 0.5″ expected. Although the rain overnight will be fairly light, wind gusts up to 30mph are possible. Secure X-Mas decor.

Low rain chances stick with us throughout the weekend, but still see no reason to alter any outdoor plans just yet.

Fingers crossed Titans game this week is better weather-wise than last weeks.

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Cold + Dryyy, Rain OTW Thursday PM

BNA only got to a high of 43° today, which is the coolest high since March 19th earlier this year. We’ll dip down into the low 20’s again tonight, I bet a few backyards could reach the upper teens.

Although it may not feel like the stereotypical fire weather, with our ongoing drought, low relative humidity, and gusty winds at times, fires could spread quickly.

Rain chances return late Thursday night, shoutout to a low-pressure system. A majority of the rain looks to fall overnight Thursday into the early hours of Friday. “Most of Middle Tennessee can expect between 1/2″ and 3/4″ of rain…” says NWS Nashville. The Euro gives its best guess below

That’s not a drought-buster, but we’ll take anything we can get, little by little. Models start to disagree after Friday, but lower rain chances will stick around for the weekend, I see no reason to alter any outdoor plans quite yet.

Friday thru at least early next week we avoid dropping below freezing. If December being right around the corner makes you think about snow, bad news for you is there isn’t any in the forecast for the foreseeable future.

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Drizzle Moving Out, Cooler + Dry End to November

Some light drizzle still moving thru the area, just enough to be slightly annoying.

Drizzle will be all gone by Monday morning as we wake up to temps below freezing, with wind chills in the low 20s.

This will be a common theme Monday – Wednesday. Thursday high temps finally warm up to the 60s and they’ll stay there as we enter December.

No meaningful rain chances until Friday, with gusty winds at times this week + dry conditions, fire danger will have to be discussed again.

GIF by Smokey Bear

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Sunday Showers, Dry Rest of November

Nice fall Saturday.

We’ll have some light rain chances Sunday.

HRRR model (above) shows two main chances for light showers, Sunday morning thru lunch, then again Sunday evening.

Rainfall totals look very low.

Only a 20-30% chance of 0.10″ of rain, not very helpful with our drought situation.

Other than Sunday, no more rain chances to talk about for the rest of November. Next rain chance looks to be beginning of December.

We’ll wake up with temps around/below freezing Monday – Thursday, coldest temps Tuesday morning getting down to the mid 20s.

Freezing Sesame Street GIF by Willem Dafriend

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