On/Off Rain Quttin’ Sunday AM, Blustery Monday

On and off light rain is moving into the area.

HRRR (above) shows the rain ending early Sunday morning. We should be dry for your drive to church, brunch, Titans game.

National Football League Win GIF by NFL

Rainfall totals look like not an awful lot, only 0.25″ – 0.5″.

Monday some wrap-around moisture could bring us some light showers Monday afternoon. Monday will also be very windy, gusts up to 25-30mph are possible.

Tuesday AM will be the coldest morning of the forecast, temperatures in the low 20s, a few backyards could dip down into the upper teens.

Quiet weather will stick around until rain chances pick up again, you guessed it, next weekend.


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Rain Chances Saturday PM - Sunday AM

Another beautiful December day. High temps once again reached the low 60s, several degrees above norm.

Seems like most weekends we end up with some rain chances. Thankfully this weekend we don’t have to deal with any storms, just rain.

The first half of Saturday will be nice, then after noon rain chances pick up.

The HRRR (above) shows on/off rain Saturday afternoon lasting thru Sunday AM.

No strong or severe weather is expected.

Still thinking that rain should clear out in time for the Titans game. Fingers crossed, but this could change.

Rainfall totals look light, not much help with our drought still ongoing.

Davidson Co. is still in a Moderate Drought, while WillCo. is in a Severe Drought.

Some wrap-around moisture could bring us some additional showers Monday afternoon, but those chances are low.

Hard freeze Tuesday AM then we return to a quiet, mild weather pattern.


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Showers Saturday PM Into Sunday AM; Look Away Snow Lovers

Another December day that doesn’t feel like December.

Plenty of sun propelled high temperatures into the low 60s. Temps will fall down into the low 30s tonight.

Friday will be a copy and paste of what we had with today.

Saturday, clouds will increase throughout the day as a cold front approaches.

The EURO (above) shows said cold front bringing some showers along with it. This particular run shows rain chances increasing Saturday afternoon, lasting thru the early hours of Sunday morning. This timing could very easily change. No severe weather is in the forecast.

Both the GFS and EURO model currently agree that the rain will move out in time for Titans’ game.

“Depending on how much wrap-around moisture we experience…precipitation might end as a wintry mix — or just plain snow — Monday afternoon and evening, mainly along the Cumberland Plateau. But we aren’t expecting any accumulation.”

– NWS Nashville Afternoon AFD

AKA we could get some rain showers Monday afternoon, but if you hear any talk of snow, it’s not for us, just the Plateau.

Speaking of, we still don’t have any snow in the forecast.

The 8-14 day temp outlook shows above normal temperatures for us. All signs point to a mild X-mas.

Not that we normally have much of a chance at a White Christmas…


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Iffy Weekend Rain Chances

For a mid-December day, the weather is treating us well. Plenty of sun got high temps up into the upper 50s, we’ll fall back down to around freezing tonight.

Thursday and Friday will be copy and paste, mild afternoons, cold nights.

Bored Nick Kyrgios GIF by Tennis TV

Rain chances creep back up Saturday into Sunday. Models, of course, disagree.

The EURO (above) brings in some showers overnight Saturday, lingering into Sunday morning.

The GFS thinks these showers fall apart before reaching us, leaving us dry.

BOTH models agree that the low-pressure system (seen in the gif) along the East coast will not be a rainmaker for us.

Which one is right? Who knows. I wouldn’t place any bets just yet. Details will be ironed out as we get closer.

The NWS Blend of Models shows that this shouldn’t be a big rainmaker. However, these numbers could change, higher or lower. We’ll keep ya posted.


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Cold Mornings and Mild Afternoons

Started out with temps below freezing this morning, but plenty of sunshine has propelled our temperatures into the mid to upper 50s.

This will be a reoccurring theme throughout the work week.

Rain chances will increase Saturday/Sunday thanks to a low-pressure system to our south. Usually around this time of year, if we mention a low-pressure system to our south, we’d normally have to talk about snow. However, with no cold air in place, we’ll be stuck with just rain chances.

Rain chances look questionable this far out. Any specific details will be ironed out as we get closer to the weekend.

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Uneventful Week Ahead

With high pressure dominating the region, we’ll be in a calm, unchanging weather pattern for a while. I like calm.

Besides today, with high temps in the mid 40s, the rest of the week we’ll see highs in the mid to upper 50s. AM temps will be around freezing.

No rain chances to speak of until maybe Saturday, and those look questionable.

Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks suggest above average temperatures and below average rainfall. Good for quiet weather, not great news for the drought.

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Calm and Cool Weather Ahead

A cool day is made colder by a jerk wind from the NW, making it feel several degrees colder than it actually is.

Thankfully, calm weather is in the forecast for this week. No rain in the forecast until maybe Saturday.

We’ll wake up each day this week with temps around the freezing mark. High temps will reach the mid 50s by Tuesday.

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Tornado Watch Until 7pm, Severe Weather Potential This Afternoon/Evening

A Tornado Watch has been issued for both of our counties until 7pm tonight.

Our probabilities from the Storm Prediction Center are:

  • 15% chance of damaging straight-line winds within 25 miles
  • 15% chance of severe hail within 25 miles
  • 10% of a tornado within 25 miles (10% or greater chance of EF2+ tornado)

Our main threat today continues to be damaging straight-line winds, but severe hail and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

Timing

Best chance for potential severe weather appears to be from 4pm – 9pm. However, severe storms are possible before this timeframe. It will be important to be weather aware all day.

The HRRR model (above) shows the main line of storms arriving for us around 5-6pm, give or take an hour or so. Storms are possible ahead of the main line. ETAs will continue to be updated throughout the day.

Preparing

It’s been a while since we’ve dealt with any severe weather. Now is a good time to review where to go *if* a warning is issued for you.

Image

*If* a warning is issued for any part of our two counties, we will go live on our YouTube channel: Nashville Severe Weather @NashSevereWx – YouTube

We’ll be tweeting updates as needed on X (Twitter) all day long.

Heartrates can go up when talk of severe weather comes around and that’s okay. Here’s an article we have on storm anxiety.


Sunday and beginning of next week looks dry and cool.

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Severe Weather Chances Saturday Afternoon/Evening

It’s been… /checks calendar/ …a while since we’ve talked about any severe weather chances.

Although it is December, this is not unusual for us. We are in the midst of our second severe weather season, and although it has been quiet/non-existent so far, it has finally awoken.

Let’s dive right in and discuss.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked us with a:

  • 15% chance of damaging straight-line winds within 25 miles of a given point
  • 15% chance of large hail within 25 miles of a given point
  • 5% of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point

What changed? The past few days we’ve talked about how only one or two of the ingredients needed for severe weather were forecasted to be in place. Model data now shows a higher chance of more ingredients (more CAPE aka storm fuel, higher dewpoints) coming together and now here we are.

First things first, some light showers are possible tonight after sunset. These would be non-severe. They will be few and far between.

Additionally, some showers/storms are possible before the timeframe for severe weather, Saturday AM thru lunch. These would be scattered, could contain heavy rain and potentially lightning.

Severe Timing

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The best guess for our potential severe weather looks to be from 3pm-8pm tomorrow. Take notice of the note in the image, strong storms are possible outside of this window, and timing may need to be adjusted.

The HRRR model, above, agrees with the estimate on the timing for potential severe storms. The HRRR and a few other models show the possibility of severe storms ahead of the “main” line. These storms would have to be watched just as much as the line.

The HRRR is one of many models that is looked at, some show the timing sooner, some show later. We’ll keep you updated on ETAs as they come in.

Our main threat tomorrow afternoon/evening is damaging straight-line winds and large hail. The chance for a tornado or two is low, but not zero. Check back frequently for updates, as this forecast may change.

If you hear about any snow chances, that is exclusively for the Plateau, temperatures will not get that cold for us.

Rainfall totals from tonight thru late Saturday look around 1.5″ – 2″, very beneficial for us.

After the front moves thru Saturday night, temps will take a tumble and we’ll experience a lot cooler temps to start the week. AM temps will be around the freezing mark all week. No credible rain chances beyond Saturday night.

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Drought Improvement, Light Rain Tonight Into Friday AM, Weekend Uncertainty

I’ll start off with good news, and that is that our drought situation has improved. It is not gone, but it has improved.

Davidson has been left with a Moderate Drought, while WillCo. is under a Severe Drought. Better than the Extreme Drought we were dealing with.

The bad news is that over the next 7 days there doesn’t look to be much help with that, although there are some rain chances, so let’s discuss.


Tonight light rain will spread across the area, lasting overnight into Friday morning.

HRRR model (above) shows the majority of the rain falling while most of us are asleep, with only a few showers left to deal with Friday AM rush hour. Overnight, winds could pick up, with gusts up to 35 – 40mph possible, secure Santa and his reindeer before they go flying.

Most of the rain should be gone by Friday lunch; your Friday evening plans, including the Franklin tree lighting look dry.

Saturday low rain chances reemerge.

The HRRR model (above) shows a majority of the rain staying to our SE, but a few stray showers coming in during the morning to lunch hours. The system should pull away in the afternoon, leaving evening plans dry, but confidence is a little shaky in that.

Sunday rain chances exist, but they are low. Models are confused on timing, will have to wait and see on that.

Rainfall totals from this weekend look to be in the 0.25″ – 0.75″ range.

No severe weather chances exist with any of this.

Interested Like It GIF by BH90210

Temps now thru early next week will run around average to slightly above average. We’ll enjoy 60s for high temps this weekend. We’ll stay away from freezing temps until mid next-week.

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