A humid, but not too unstable, airmass is atop us this afternoon. This means a few isolated rainers have been racing north. This will continue through the afternoon, then start to die down (but not completely killed off) overnight. Any rain we get will be of little consequence.
#1 That “H” in the Atlantic is known as a Bermuda High. High pressure suppresses rain chances.
#2 That “L” is a surface low. It has caused major flooding in Louisiana. It is pulling moisture in from the Gulf and creating a flash flood threat for those to our west and southwest.
70° dewpoints are not going anywhere today or next week. We are trapped inside a tropical and humid airmass. These dewpoints have been around for a few weeks, and truth be told, we are acclimating. Still, you’re going to sweat alot, don’t be a hero, hydrate.
The radar relocated to the bottom of the page. I got sick of looking at it at the top.
The front that was making me rain-nervous for those along and S of 40 has finally dropped along 840, as seen here at 4:16 PM:
Tonight looks fine for outdoor activities. Any rain that develops will move south.
Drier air arrives, shoving dewpoints out of the 70°s and into the still-humid upper 60°s. Rain is not expected.
Dew points will return into the low 70°s. Gross.
NWS-Nashville wrote today:
Will carry chance probabilities of precipitation all week due to no one day/area seeing a better shot than the next.
Meaning, it may rain each day, but we don’t really know when. If you read this, maybe the odds are higher Tuesday. I can’t explain that.
Afternoon/Early evenings more likely to produce rain. Maybe too much rain:
While the threat for severe weather will be low, we will need to monitor the rainfall accumulations each day. The cumulative totals throughout the week could end up causing some very localized flooding issues.
For no good reason, I put the radar at the bottom of this page.
A front passed by last night, so today we get a north breeze. That breeze is really only happening north of I-40.
You’d think a north breeze would mean cooler, drier air, but when the weather balloon went up this morning, the dew point was SEVENTY FIVE.
Current Radar
Few showers have popped up, and more are possible as we move into the evening. Most of us won’t see anything.
We don’t do much stupid stuff @NashSevereWx, but Sharknado is one of them. Sharknado 4 is tonight. As we said three years ago:
If you have *anything* to do tonight, do that. If not, watch Sharknado on Syfy at 6 pm.
— NashSevereWx (@NashSevereWx) August 22, 2013
If you’re unfamiliar, Sharknado is one of those movies that’s so bad it’s fun. If you’re still on the fence about watching it, and you’re mature with a refined sense of humor, don’t watch. For everyone else, let’s revisit the Sharknado 3 viewing guide:
Sharknado 3 viewing guide:
1. Lower expectations.
2. Lower them more.
3. Keep going.
4. Gather your friends.
5. Drink responsibly, & enjoy.— NashSevereWx (@NashSevereWx) July 21, 2015
It starts at 7 PM. Sharknado is much more fun watching it live while following the #sharknado4 hashtag. If you DVR it, you’ll miss that social media collective experience thing. 7 PM, y’all.
NWS-Nashville wrote this afternoon that we:
Will need to keep an eye out up in Missouri as we go through the evening as a complex may try and make a run down through western Kentucky and possibly try and make it into northwest Middle Tennessee some time tonight possibly in the late night.
Current Radar
The chance of rain today is low. The reason isn’t exciting, so I’ll just show the HRRR model, below, which thinks a few showers/storms may pop up briefly by mid/late afternoon. Don’t alter any outdoor plans.
Current Radar
Monday, High 94° NWS Nashville says “rain chances will edge upward Monday and Tuesday as a weak surface boundary approaches from the north.”
“Edge upward” is the best part of this phrase. The HRRR parallel model shows nothing in the morning. The NAM4 doesn’t, either, and it keeps things pretty scattered in the afternoon. But, the global models have us getting some rain in the afternoon, but I don’t think everyone will get wet. Rain confidence is a bit higher now that there will be that surface boundary close by. NWS likes our rain chances and has us down for 0.17″ of rain.
Current Radar
Our Heat Advisory has been dropped because, when we hit our high 94°, the dewpoint should be “only” 72°, which makes a heat index of 102°. You need 105° to issue a Heat Advisory.
Current Radar
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