Today

We will have hit-or-miss showers tonight. Don’t cancel outdoor plans. If you’re unlucky enough to be in the “hit” rather than the “miss,” consult your rabbi, pastor, minister, life coach, mentor, etc.

Tomorrow

An impressive swath of severe weather, now forming in the Plains, is forecast to move east tomorrow through Arkansas toward Middle Tennessee. This has prompted SPC to issue a Moderate Risk of severe weather for West Tennessee (see below).  This is a dangerous weather situation. Anyone traveling to Memphis tomorrow should staple yourself to reliable weather sources. On Twitter, there’s no better source for Memphis & surrounding counties than @memphisweather1.

We are currently excluded from the Moderate Risk area. We’re encircled by the Slight Risk, mostly because the storms are expected to arrive around or after midnight Thursday night into Friday morning. This wee-hour arrival should – we think and hope – decrease our storm potential. This is a storm system worth closely watching. Here are excerpts from the NWS:

BY THE TIME THE LINE REACHES NASHVILLE...TENTATIVELY
AROUND MIDNIGHT...IT WILL BE MOVING INTO MORE STABLE AIR 
AND THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS 
IT MOVES EAST.

That said:

THE JET DOES REMAIN STRONG MAINLY OVER KY AND NORTHERN MIDDLE TN AS THE LINE PUSHES EAST. HELICITY VALUES AND FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE AND COULD ENCOURAGE SOME SPIN UPS RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THIS THREAT WILL ALSO BE MAINLY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY OCCURS. SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY. read more

The Storm Prediction Center has encircled middle Tennessee inside a Slight Risk of severe weather today:

The main concern is wind > 58mph and hail > 1″. There’s a 15% of either/both happening within 25 miles of you today. Here are the wind and hail outlooks: read more

Today

Expect a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. We’ll make it into the 80s this afternoon.

Thursday Into Friday Morning

This morning, the Storm Prediction Center included us within a Slight Risk of severe weather for Thursday overnight into Friday morning.

We should stay dry most of the day Thursday — and get in a rare [insert sport here] practice/game Thursday evening — but it will be very windy. Our NWS explains:

THUS EXPECTING STRONG SOUTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE BY AFTERNOON 
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NECESSARY.

Our NWS says the weather models are in “great agreement” (unlike last week) that a squall line will form to our west Thursday night, reach the Tennessee River around 10-11pm, and hit us around 1am.

Damaging winds are the main concern.  We may see a few tornadoes inside the squall line.  The good news is the storms should begin to weaken right around the time they get to us. Here’s the NWS explanation:

STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND OVERALL SYSTEM INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED QLCS TORNADOES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE MID STATE...BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS NEAR/EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR AS IT OUTRUNS WHAT LITTLE INSTABILITY REMAINS. read more

Wednesday – Friday

We may see thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, but right now we don’t think those will be severe.

The high Wednesday is 84, and we’ll make it to 83 Thursday. Friday’s high is only 61 – that’s 22 degrees colder. read more

Today

At 2:55pm, the Storm Prediction Center moved the Slight Risk area north, and out of both counties. Some risk of severe weather remains. First, here’s the updated Slight Risk area:

The 2% tornado risk — meaning there is a 2% chance of a tornado happening with 25 miles of you — remains: read more

At 11:16am, the Storm Prediction Center updated its outlook for severe weather today. The Slight Risk of severe weather remains:

Te probability of a tornado within 25 miles of you remains 2%:

read more

When the weather balloon went up this morning, it found plenty of severe weather ingredients. The Storm Prediction Center responded with its morning update. Here it is.

We are under a Slight Risk of severe weather today: read more

Models are suggesting off/on rain and thunderstorms tomorrow. They’ll be hit or miss.

For example, the RAP model at 10am keeps the showers west of us:

The Hi-Res NAM keeps the showers east of us:

The truth is probably somewhere in between.

Rain/Storms will increase with daytime heating, then wither away as the sun goes down. Storms are capable of hail and straight-line winds. Our NWS:

INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY AND WE COULD SEE ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOP AND BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. STORMS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD WEAKEN BY NIGHTFALL. read more

Temps will climb into the 80s, with increasing humidity. Wednesday and Thursday will feel more like summer than spring. With that comes a decent chance of afternoon pop-up showers, or maybe a thunderstorm. There are two chances of severe weather: Tuesday and Thursday night into Friday morning. read more

Monday – Thursday

High temps will be in the low 80s, with only a slight chance of an afternoon/early evening shower or thunderstorm Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

Here’s the NWS weather-speak for Monday through Thursday:

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING AND INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY TO SPELL ISOLATED-SCATTERED STORMS THRU THAT
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY.

The Big Cold Front

Our NWS expects a cold front to arrive during the wee hours of Friday morning.  The storm is expected to have little CAPE (thunderstorm building blocks), but there will be a lot of wind shear and plenty of moisture to work with.

This means

[WE] COULD SEE LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS MINOR FLASH FLOODING. read more