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Afternoon Update: Severe Weather Concerns Today & Tomorrow

Today

We will have hit-or-miss showers tonight. Don’t cancel outdoor plans. If you’re unlucky enough to be in the “hit” rather than the “miss,” consult your rabbi, pastor, minister, life coach, mentor, etc.

Tomorrow

An impressive swath of severe weather, now forming in the Plains, is forecast to move east tomorrow through Arkansas toward Middle Tennessee. This has prompted SPC to issue a Moderate Risk of severe weather for West Tennessee (see below). ¬†This is a dangerous weather situation. Anyone traveling to Memphis tomorrow should staple yourself to reliable weather sources. On Twitter, there’s no better source for Memphis & surrounding counties than @memphisweather1.

We are currently excluded from the Moderate Risk area. We’re encircled by the Slight Risk, mostly because the storms are expected to arrive around or after midnight Thursday night into Friday morning. This wee-hour arrival should – we think and hope – decrease our storm potential. This is a storm system worth closely watching. Here are excerpts from the NWS:

BY THE TIME THE LINE REACHES NASHVILLE...TENTATIVELY
AROUND MIDNIGHT...IT WILL BE MOVING INTO MORE STABLE AIR 
AND THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS 
IT MOVES EAST.

That said:

THE JET DOES REMAIN STRONG MAINLY OVER KY AND NORTHERN MIDDLE TN
AS THE LINE PUSHES EAST. HELICITY VALUES AND FORECAST HODOGRAPHS
ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE AND COULD ENCOURAGE SOME SPIN UPS RIGHT ALONG
THE BOUNDARY...THIS THREAT WILL ALSO BE MAINLY WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY OCCURS. SHOWERS
SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY.

Our NWS has called a special conference call with media and emergency management tomorrow at 1pm to detail the threat, which is forecast to be 12 hours away by then. We’ll be on the call and relay the information to you.

Before the storms arrive tomorrow, winds will be very strong. A Wind Advisory will likely be needed for Thursday afternoon and evening for winds around 40mph.

*posted at 442pm

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