Tonight

A few more showers are possible, but rain chances will decrease after dark. However, plenty of storm-juice to feed on will remain overnight. Lightning, heavy rain likely inside the few “rogue” storms which do develop. read more

Sooo, What Happened? Why Didn’t It Rain?

Last night and this morning, all indications said rain. Sure enough, this morning a lot of rain was streaming east from Arkansas and West Tennessee, moving our way. Our NWS quickly issued a Flash Flood Watch. read more

First, let’s review final rainfall totals from Thursday’s Flash Flood:

Despite destroying the record of 1.99″ set in 1923, the record remains because the official measurement is taken at the airport, where rainfall totals didn’t even approach 1.99″.

Tonight & Tomorrow – Rain Likely – Saturday’s High 88

Fri 7pm 79 . 10pm 77

Sat 7am 74 . 10am 82 . 1pm 86 . 4pm 88 . 7pm 85 . 10pm 77

Behold this epic, informative run-on sentence from the NWS afternoon forecast discussion:

THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS A BROAD SWATH FROM PLAINS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS LADEN WITH MOISTURE WITH THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT TONIGHT BEING FROM NORTHERN ARKANSAS ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE AND THE NORTH HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE WHERE LOCALLY ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAIN COULD FALL AT JUST ABOUT ANY LOCATION IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT WITH MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST SAGS DOWN INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AS WARM FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER BY SUNDAY. read more

Davidson County is currently (at 6 a.m.) under a Flash Flood Warning and Flood Advisories for Whites Creek at Bordeaux and Dry Creek at Edenwold. Rain will continue to “train” across Davidson County until around 7 a.m. or so.

So, what about tonight? We asked three weather models:

HRRR

According to the HRRR, the rain will return after lunch. Here it is at 1 p.m.:

The rain hangs around for a few hours, then is gone in time for the Titans game, Live On The Green, etc.

The other models do not agree.

RAP

This model keeps a stray shower around for kickoff and the opening act tonight. Here it is at 7 p.m.:

NAM

The NAM also predicts rain at the game/concert tonight, at least at the start:

Our NWS puts the rain chances at 50% to 60% for late afternoon/early evening. More from our NWS:

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AT TIMES...PRODUCING GUSTY WIND AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING. read more

Here is the radar though noon:

This is what the HRRR thinks we will see this afternoon and tonight – a weakening rain shower or two with an ETA around dusk:

The Intern will be by later this afternoon with his usual next-few-days forecast. read more

First and Foremost, this post is brought to you by the makers of Mountain Dew, the only reason I’m currently seated upright. I’ve been up since 4 a.m., and my rule (which today seems ridiculous) is No Coffee After 2:30 p.m., so in order to function I reached for a Dew (it’s diet, for those of you concerned about me). This is my first soda in several months, and I’m drinking it fully realizing it’s the diet version of 19.25 teaspoons of sugar: read more

Tonight

A surface cold front has already passed through Middle Tennessee, opening the door to cooler and drier air for tomorrow. However, there’s still enough low level moisture hanging around to pop up a shower or two early tonight. Be aware, but don’t alter any outdoor or overnight plans. Have an umbrella handy. read more

Our NWS forecasts a storm-making frontal boundary will sink south tonight, setting off a cluster of storms around midnight. The HRRR model (not shown, because there is nothing to show) isn’t much of a believer – it thinks it’ll barely rain overnight. The RAP doesn’t predict heavy showers/storms, either. It’s unlikely these storms will be strong or severe. read more

New model runs and a Storm Prediction Center update are in.

Storms are moving NW-to-SE today. The morning showers which moved south of I-40 are long gone, and there’s not much on the radar to our NW to cause any rain-out/washout concerns for outdoor plans later this afternoon and tonight. read more

First, another appropriate use of summer:

Tonight

We should be rain-free for most of the day. Rain and a few thunderstorms are forming along the Ohio River. HRRR at 8 p.m. tonight:

Those Ohio River storms will come south through Kentucky later tonight, arriving here around 11 p.m.: read more