Tonight

A surface cold front has already passed through Middle Tennessee, opening the door to cooler and drier air for tomorrow. However, there’s still enough low level moisture hanging around to pop up a shower or two early tonight. Be aware, but don’t alter any outdoor or overnight plans. Have an umbrella handy. read more

Our NWS forecasts a storm-making frontal boundary will sink south tonight, setting off a cluster of storms around midnight. The HRRR model (not shown, because there is nothing to show) isn’t much of a believer – it thinks it’ll barely rain overnight. The RAP doesn’t predict heavy showers/storms, either. It’s unlikely these storms will be strong or severe. read more

New model runs and a Storm Prediction Center update are in.

Storms are moving NW-to-SE today. The morning showers which moved south of I-40 are long gone, and there’s not much on the radar to our NW to cause any rain-out/washout concerns for outdoor plans later this afternoon and tonight. read more

First, another appropriate use of summer:

Tonight

We should be rain-free for most of the day. Rain and a few thunderstorms are forming along the Ohio River. HRRR at 8 p.m. tonight:

Those Ohio River storms will come south through Kentucky later tonight, arriving here around 11 p.m.: read more

Saturday morning looks OK rain-wise, but Saturday night and Sunday look wet. Below, we review the entire weekend, model-by-model.

(Note: these are weather models, subject to error and revision. As we always say, use them for guidance, not Gospel. Also, read more than one). read more

Tonight

A few showers, and maybe a few weak thunderstorms, should stream in from the SW, moving NW. Storms usually come from the opposite direction, so we call these unusually-moving storms “Crazy Ivans.” These Crazy Ivans will be off and on. read more

Storms are expected to develop this afternoon from I-65 east toward Knoxville. They’ll move NNW. This is illustrated by the HRRR, which is predicting what the radar may look like at 4 p.m. today.  I put a box around Davidson and Williamson Counties. read more

First things first. SHARNADO!

Those of you following on Twitter know I’ve been way too excited for “Sharknado,” airing tonight at 8 p.m. on Syfy. I love terrible tornado movies (which means I love all tornado movies). read more

read more

Overview

You won’t find any jokes in this fourthcast, because it sucks.

An unusually wet weather pattern is arriving, and it won’t change for the next several days.  This will be like a tropical system, full of moisture and thunderstorm chances. Strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out at any time over the next several days.

But the main story will be rain.  A lot of rain.

Tonight

Rain will be close by. Weather models keep the rain in East Tennessee, but extend it as far west as I-65. This may be our last dry night for a while.

Fourthcast

Our NWS has issued a Flash Flood Watch effective beginning at 12 a.m. Thursday morning through Friday at 7 p.m.

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY... .A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM OVER THE REGION WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING UP TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN. read more