We remain outlooked for severe thunderstorm potential Wednesday. Expect an update after SWAD (ongoing now at Trevecca).

Temps 👇🏽. Want to get right in to severe potential Weds 2/28/24.

SPC outlooked Wednesday, Feb 28, 2024, for severe weather potential.

This outlook means 15% probability of a severe thunderstorm (defined: hail, and/or damaging straight line winds, and/or tornado) within 25 miles of you. read more

Approaching storm line healthy. Producing frequent lightning. Even rotating at mid levels. Expect here heavy rain, lightning, gusty winds, maybe small hail 5-6 PM, give or take an hour or so.

Brace yourself for a drastic temp change. 60°s this afternoon. 30°s before midnight with subfreezing wind chills lasting until late Sunday AM. read more

At 3 PM a strong thunderstorm line formed in West TN moving our way. Lightning, small hail, gusty winds, brief heavy downpours. 5-6 PM ETA per HRRR model. Very cold air behind it, bundle up if going out. read more

Thunderstorms and heavy downpours in model data, ETA 5-6 PM, plus or minus a few hours. You’ll want to be inside then.

Rain passing thru bt 4:30 PM and 7 PM. Very little snow 9-10 PM tonight. Few/No travel impacts. Bridges, Overpasses, High Elevation Areas may be slick.

Wind chills below freezing from around 9 PM tonight through late morning Sunday. read more

New HRRR model run, Friday timing. Estimates only. May change:

• Rain arriving bt 4 PM – 7 PM
• Rain to Sleet to Snow bt 9 PM – Midnight

Most snow to melt on impact. Little to no accumulation.

Bridges, Overpasses, and Areas at Higher Elevation may be slick late Friday night thru Sat AM. Expecting below freezing temps late Friday night until about 9 AM Sat. Bridges and overpasses are the exception because they cool down way faster than earth. read more

We’re still droughty, just less droughty. Takes time to catch up from our big rain deficit.

Very little/no snow expected locally tonight.

Deets: Notice the surface low (the red L below) that’s now just passed to our south. It’s racing to Knoxville then Carolina mtns.

This means:

1. Temps are about to drop fast.
2. But precip will pull east and away from us quick.
3. The 700 MB chart shows the base of the trough getting here late, delaying local rain/snow transition.
4. While flakes may fly, surface temps should be too warm for accumulation.

High elevations may get dusted. 99% of us nah. read more

Off/On downpours. Storm center remains south. Some lightning there. Radar below at 305 PM.

Precip will continue tonight. Mix of rain/snow. Few/No impacts locally. Higher elevations may see a dusting — those up a big hill, Fairview, SE Will Co, and other high spots. HRRR model thinks rain/snow gone by midnight. read more