Little Rain Left, then All is Quiet

Rain is done for most of us. Maybe light showers here and there for some. Altogether inconsequential. Just your average spring day. Mild temps and breezy (gusts up to 40 mph possible). Hang on to your hats!

Next few days look uneventful. Cooler air rolls through this afternoon. Sticking around through the weekend. Possible frost concerns, especially Sunday. Not much else to speak of.

Look Ahead to Next Week

More active weather pattern possible midweek. About normal temps/precip, maybe slightly above. Take home point is that we’ll be staying dry for awhile.

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Wet Today, Dry Tomorrow

We’re on the tail end of the low pressure responsible for the latest rain. Nothing left but a few light showers (mostly south of I-40). Everything should be out by this evening:

HRRR Composite Reflectivity, Wed. 1pm – Wed. 8pm

NWS has backed off of forecasted highs for today… courtesy of cloudy skies. Will get more sun tomorrow as we dry out. Thursday will be more agreeable with your spring break plans. Warm temps and no rain.

Next Rain Event

Another system headed our way Friday. Rain showers, a couple storms possible. Most of the action in the morning. Will have better idea of setup/timing once HRRR comes into range. For now, here’s the GFS:

GFS Composite Reflectivity, Fri. 1am – Sat. 7am

Not expecting any severe weather with this one. Rainfall amounts look light. Just more rain. Stay tuned in case any severe weather threats crop up.

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Brief Warming Trend; Weekend Snow Possible

Rain has moved out… so what’s next? Highs warm up to the 60’s tomorrow and Friday. More sunshine the next couple days.

Late Friday night is when things start to get interesting. A strong cold front is expected to roll through… frigid temps along with it. Talking about a turnaround of almost 45 degrees from Friday afternoon to Saturday morning! Possible that we don’t get above freezing Saturday:

Wind Chill Values, Fri. 12pm – Sun. 1pm

It’s likely we see precip with the front. Believe it or not, snow is possible as temps plunge below freezing. Low res models generally agree on a rain to snow transition late Friday night into early Saturday:

GFS Precip Type/Rate, Fri. 6pm – Sat. 9am

NWS thinking about an inch or so of accumulation right now (susceptible to change). Takeaway is that travel could be impacted by slick roads into Saturday. Be mindful if you plan to travel.

Lots of questions to be asked here. Will there be enough moisture? How will Friday’s warm temps affect accumulation? High res models will be in range tonight to give us a clearer picture. These events are very sensitive to intensity, track, and moisture. A slight change in any one of those things could mean more/less accumulation than forecasted. We’ll keep you in the loop!

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Next Rain Chance Saturday Night, Sunday

Meteorological spring has sprung and it sure feels like it. Highs near 20 degrees above average today! Expect calm, clear conditions until the weekend. (Editor’s note: We call “meteorological spring” fake spring. Gotta wait til March 20 for the real thing. But, we’ll take the warm weather).

Next Weather Maker

Things look mostly dry for us until a chance of rain creeps in Sunday. Here’s what the GFS is showing right now:

GFS Reflectivity Values, Sun. 6am – Mon. 6pm

Best chance for thunderstorms Monday. The data is shaky at best. Lots subject to change between now and then. We’ll be keeping an eye out!

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Heavy Rain Winding Down, Flooding Still Possible

The heaviest of the rainfall is past us. Hit or miss showers rest of today. Under a half inch of rain between now and the wee hours tomorrow morning. Everything should be mostly out by then.

HRRR Precip Accumulation, between Thu. 11am – Fri. 3am
HRRR Composite Reflectivity, Thu. 1pm – Fri. 4am

Good news is the ground has more time to accommodate this new rain. But flooding is still possible. Anything that falls is going to easily runoff to already flooded areas. Especially north of I-40 where more rain is expected. We remain under a flood watch until 6AM tomorrow morning.

We’re on the back end of the system, but continue to be weather aware. Driving across flooded roadways is fighting a losing battle. Avoid it at all costs!

Look Ahead at the Weekend

Cooler and dry tomorrow. A slow warming trend kicks off Saturday into next week. Slight chance of a rain and snow mix Saturday night. No more than a dusting, if anything. Updates coming later.

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Round Two Starting Tonight, More Flooding Possible

Shortlived break from the rain today. Chilly temps today and tonight. Most of the frozen precip expected to fall NW of us. HRRR thinks a little sleet could mix in early on… nothing impactful.

HRRR Precip Type, Wed. 6pm – Thu 12am

On and off rain showers start tonight and continue throughout the day tomorrow. Heaviest rainfall overnight tonight:

HRRR Composite Reflectivity, Wed. 6pm – Fri. 2am

Good news is no severe weather is expected with round two. No more than the occasional rumble of thunder. Heavy rains could cause more flooding. Already saturated ground and swollen rivers/creeks mean water has nowhere to go but up. Rain gauges around our counties measured 2-2.5 inches of accumulation from yesterday’s rain… More to come:

See statement issued in this morning’s forecast discussion:

WPC has issued risks of flash flooding within 25 miles of any given point in our counties: 15% probability (yellow) and 5% probability (green).

Prepare for new flooding, especially in low-lying areas. Could see some creeks/rivers reach above flood stage. Keep in mind if you live near one that’s prone to flooding. Turn on your weather alerts so you don’t miss any flood advisories, watches, etc. that are issued. We’ll keep you updated!

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Severe Storms Possible Thursday + Wind Advisory

Storms are fed by instability. The question for tomorrow’s potential severe event: will there be enough storm food to fire up storms AND sustain themselves? CAPE values are relatively low, but recent model runs show a slight uptick (which could be just enough).

Helicity/shear values are high. This means storms that successfully develop won’t have much to stop them from rotating. Not much instability will be needed for storms to go strong to severe.

SPC has bumped up our probabilities of seeing severe weather tomorrow afternoon/evening. The probability of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of you is now 10%. We are also included in a “hatched” area in the outlook, which means if a tornado occurs, there is at least a 10% chance that a tornado could be an EF2 or stronger.

SPC Convective Outlook. Issued 1728z Feb 16

The probability of damaging straight-line winds occurring in a thunderstorm within 25 miles of you is 30%. These are thunderstorm winds that are 58+ mph.

SPC Convective Outlook. Issued 1728z Feb 16

The probability of severe hail of 1″ diameter or larger occurring within 25 miles of you is 5%.

SPC Convective Outlook. Issued 1728z Feb 16

Timing

The HRRR from this morning thinks we’ll see showers and thunderstorms begin mid-morning and exit around 7pm. 3-7pm appears to be the window for the strongest storms.

18z HRRR Feb 16 7am-7pm

The Wind Y’all

A wind advisory is in effect until 9 pm Thursday for winds outside of thunderstorms. Today, winds are gusting between 35-40 mph. Tomorrow, winds could gust even stronger, up to 45 mph. Secure outdoor objects that could blow around and end up down the street. If you’re downtown or in other areas of high-rise construction…be super cautious of building materials blowing down from the construction area high above.

What Could Limit Severe Weather?

At the top, we mentioned C.A.P.E. This is really the ingredient we’re watching. Other ingredients are present in the setup for tomorrow. However, C.A.P.E. has looked kinda wimpy. We’d be okay with that. However, recent model runs show enough C.A.P.E. to where it has our attention. With incredibly high shear values, C.A.P.E. doesn’t have to be crazy high to get severe weather. Will there be enough? That’s the question. HRRR illustrates this narrow line of C.A.P.E. that could materialize as storms come through to give them that extra punch. If there’s not enough C.A.P.E. severe weather will be limited.

18z HRRR CAPE

How To Prepare

This is a low probability, high impact event. Here are a few things to keep in mind.

  • Know where you are on a map. If a warning is issued, you’ll want to know where you are. If your phone has GPS, open a map program and let your phone show you where you are if you aren’t sure. Find out what county your location is in.
  • Have multiple ways to get warnings. Never rely on one warning delivery method. Use a combination of apps, WEA alerts, outdoor warning sirens (remember, not designed to be heard indoors), NOAA Weather Radio, etc.
  • If you live in a mobile home, have a plan in place where you can get to a shelter / sturdy structure very quickly (mall, store, friend’s site-built house, safe room, etc). If you aren’t able to get to one of these places quickly, consider just spending the afternoon/evening hours at one of these locations. Mobile homes are not safe in tornadic winds.
  • There are many more tips available here: https://nashvillesevereweather.com/what-to-do/

Feeling Anxious?

You’re not alone. Many of us feel the weight of anxiety when storms are a possibility. Our friend Samuel gives some advice: https://nashvillesevereweather.com/storm-anxiety/

More Updates

We’ll have more updates over on Twitter. We may even do an additional blog this evening as new data comes in.

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Unseasonably Warm + Saturday’s Meh-vent

Mild highs today, even warmer Friday. Not record-breaking, but tomorrow’s highs are around 20 degrees above average. The comfy temps will be short-lived. Cold air is making a comeback this weekend. Turnaround of almost 30 degrees from Friday to Saturday!

Not much change to the precip forecast this weekend. Showers here and there could spit out some rain, but the whole thing looks inconsequential. HRRR thinks most of the line will break apart before it gets to us:

HRRR Composite Reflectivity, Fri. 6pm – Sat. 2am

Snow is iffy. NAM is the only model depicting snow for us (not the best track record). Surface temps aren’t favorable for anything to stick. Other models show rain only. Looks like a whole lot of nothing right now. Come back for any updates.

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Clear Skies and Warm(er) Temps Continue

Mild, spring(ish) weather to look forward to the next couple days. High temps well above average. Mostly sunny and dry through Friday. Overnight lows in the mid 30s. Chart below can help with wardrobe decisions:

Hourly Temps

Back to more seasonal temps Saturday… courtesy of another cold front.

Rain Saturday?

Not a very strong front, so only a little rain. A shower here and there. Maybe some flakes Saturday night as temps plummet. Looks meh right now. Check back with us for any updates to rain/snow chances!

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Flash Flood Watch Through Thursday Night; Icing Possibilities

Widespread showers are already under way. On and off for the rest of the day. A (not long enough) break tonight before heavy rain Thursday. The meat of the system rolls through tomorrow morning through the afternoon.

HRRR Composite Reflectivity, Wed. 1pm – Thu. 8pm

Healthy rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected between today and tomorrow’s rain. Flooding is the main concern of this forecast, mainly tomorrow. Watch for a rise in rivers/creeks and localized flooding.

Image

Yellow circle represents area that could see 5+ inches. Mostly southeast of us right now… but a shift could mean more flooding issues for us.

Wintery Precip Tomorrow Night?

Cold front drops temps at the surface fast tomorrow night… to freezing levels by around midnight. Wintery precip (specifically freezing rain is a possibility through the early hours Friday.

NWS Nashville Situation Report Feb. 2, 2022

Icing is more likely northwest of us. Up to a 1/10 inch of ice is possible in the pink area. Doesn’t sound like much, but it’s enough to impact road conditions for the Friday morning commute. Bridges, overpasses, and elevated areas should be driven with caution. Power outages are possible here and there if this icing occurs.

This icing event is not a slam dunk. Lower resolution global models are more on board with the freezing rain potential for us. But, their ability to computer high resolution temperature/moisture details in the atmosphere and at the surface is low. The higher resolution models (HRRR) think the moisture pulls away just as the temps drop cold enough for freezing rain. This is something we’ll watch.

Euro Model Precip Type and Rate, Thu. 12pm – Fri. 6am
GFS Model Precip Type and Rate, Thu. 12pm – Fri. 6am
HRRR Model Precip Type and Rate, Thu. 12pm – Fri. 6am

There could be icing or none at all. We’ll keep you updated on track, timing, and impacts!

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