Today – High 78
What a difference a day can make! Mostly clear skies sunny, warm with low humidity. Enjoy it while it lasts because it’s June, and weather like this comes once in a blue moon.
Category: Forecast Blogs (Legacy)
Rain, T’Storm Chances Today (Not Severe)
Today – High 80
This morning a noisy complex of thunderstorm juuuust missed us. It passed to our southeast:
The HRRR deposits more rain on us around 10 a.m. (remember, use models for guidance, not gospel):
Full disclosure: the models haven’t been exactly helpful/accurate this morning. Other models deliver rain later in the afternoon.
Hail, Damaging Winds Main Threats Later Today, Tonight, & Early Sunday
Note — below is the morning update. More current information will be posted throughout the day on Twitter @NashSevereWx.
This Morning
A non-severe thunderstorm cluster hugged the TN/KY border. Storms in the cluster are moving NE, and the system itself is struggling to make it south.
Our NWS believes “that main area of showers and thunderstorms to our north will generally remain across this area through noon…but can not rule out some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the metro Nashville area also during this time period. Will also continue to expect south to southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts to around 25 mph possible. So bike riders need to take this into account also.”
This will NOT be the main weather event today.
Afternoon / Early Evening
The main event comes late this afternoon/early evening, courtesy of a cold front approaching the Mississippi River, ready to push east towards us. Our NWS says:
A DEVELOPING AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ... WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ETA is a little difficult because storms may form out ahead of a main line. I think it may rain/storm at any time after noon, but more likely things should begin around 5 p.m. to 7 p.m. We will update the ETA on Twitter throughout the day.
This morning, the RAP has a well-after-dark ETA of 9 p.m.:
How bad will it be? Again, from our NWS:
SOME WEAKENING OF THE STORMS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL STILL EXIST AND THEREBY PROVIDE A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER THREATS APPEAR TO BE STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE AND SOME HAIL.
Saturday Severe Threat, TORCON Rant
Tonight: a series thunderstorm clusters (more MCS fun!) move through MO, KY and IL. One may make it here, but probably not.
Saturday – High 86
It’ll definitely rain if another dying MCS shows up in the morning (that’s unlikely, brides). Expect another typical summertime slight chance of pop-up showers during the morning and afternoon hours.
Typical June Iso Storms Fri-Sat; Storms Sat Night/Sun Morn
Adding Rain Chances to Our Summer Weather
Today – High 88
Still “same old same old.” Hot, humid, sunny, and a little windy. But, things will begin to slowly change after today.
Thursday – High 88
The high pressure system driving these very warm days and dry weather will start to weaken ever so slightly Thursday. NWS has a 20% chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon hours into the evening. Many of you won’t see any rain, just very hit and miss in nature.
Deja Vu Summer Weather
Summer is Here to Stay!
Tiny Rain Chance Today. Hot & Dry This Week
Memorial Day – High of 87
A small minority of weather models deliver a passing afternoon shower, but don’t bet on it.
No rain appears on either short range model, the RAP (below) and the HRRR, through midnight:
Our NWS can’t rule rain out this afternoon, but if it happens, expect only 0.02″, which probably wouldn’t even melt the Wicked Witch of the West. Proceed with all outdoor activities.