Today the Euro, GFS, and NAM models are showing some isolated showers moving northward throughout the area. We certainly aren’t expecting any big rain. Here’s the HRRR model through tonight:
Muggy conditions will continue through Thursday with dew points in the the low 60s. Temperatures will reach the mid to upper 70s this afternoon. We are currently under an upper level ridge and high surface pressure, but that will change Thursday evening.
When waking up on Thursday, temperatures will be in the low 60s. The Storm Prediction Center has included us in a marginal risk for thunderstorms through Friday at 6 AM, but we expect the real storm action to happen after them (on Friday morning).
Thunderstorms are expected Friday morning after sunrise. The main threat will be damaging straight line winds as a surface cold front begins to move eastward across the southeast United States. An upper level positively tilted trough currently stationed to the west will begin to swing eastward moving into a more neutral tilt. By Thursday evening around 6:00 pm, positive vorticity advection will begin to move over the area. This means that there will be some upward forcing (shower development) moving into western and middle parts of Tennessee.
The tornado threat will be very low due to the surface winds mainly out of the southwest. Tornadoes love winds that turn clockwise the further up you go, but we are not getting much of that Friday morning.
The rain ahead of the cold front will begin to move through our area Friday morning into the lunchtime hours. The good news is – models show the line of storms losing its steam as it progress east/southeast. I still think the NAM model is under estimating the amount of rain we will receive Friday morning into Friday evening. The Storm Prediction includes us in a marginal risk for Friday as well.
The main threat is for damaging winds up to or beyond 50 mph.
The cold front is expected to pass through overnight on Friday into early Saturday morning. You can really see the cold air arrive from the north Saturday morning. Dew points will drop into the upper 30s and our high temperature will reach 60° Saturday afternoon. Showers will be to the southeast after 12:00 pm on Saturday.
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