The severe weather threat for today is well off to our west with an “enhanced” risk issued for Texas and Oklahoma.
A complex of showers will be moving eastward into our neck of woods today all due to a shortwave moving ahead of a strong upper level low.
Most of this will pass NW of us, but we will get a little wet.
Temperatures today will reach the low 60s in our area this afternoon under a mostly cloudy sky.
We will continue to see a few light showers through the afternoon into the evening hours as the system to the west moves slowly eastward.
The overcast skies will stick around on Tuesday and our high temperature will be 71°. It will be much warmer on Tuesday while the southerly winds filter in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.
In fact, winds will be a big part of the weather story. Winds will pick up after lunch, then accelerate from there. Gusts over 30 MPH are likely; in fact, NWS-Nashville will probably need to issue a Wind Advisory.
The Storm Prediction Center has included us in a general thunderstorm outlook for Tuesday, but only barely.
Showers with some thunderstorms will be moving through the area Tuesday morning and afternoon. Not expecting any severe threat for Tuesday, just some rumbles of thunder.
The rain looks to clear out after lunchtime, but it will stay mostly cloudy. There will a few isolated showers lingering ahead of the line through the evening hours on Tuesday into early morning on Wednesday.
This looks like a heavy rain event with some rumbles of thunder.
Severe chances remain low, to non-existent. Even though wind shear is high, CAPE values will remain low.
As for ETA, the models have been consistent with timing — the line looks to be near the area during the morning rush hour commute.
The band of showers will be moving slowly across the area. We could receive over 1.5″ of rain, with locally heavier amounts. Although driving will be awful, flooding is not a big concern since we have seen below average precipitation totals for the month – only 0.64″ , which is 1.11″ below normal for the month of November.
Our high temperature on Wednesday will be 65°.
Extended: Once the cold front passes – conditions will clear up and dry air will filter in. Temperatures will drop throughout the week under mostly sunny skies.
This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.
Categories: Forecast Blogs