Today – Overcast and Rainy High: 60°
Current radar shows showers with some thunderstorms around our area this morning. The heaviest batch of rain is to our east at the moment. The Storm Prediction Center put a pocket of General Thunderstorms in Middle Tennessee for today. Showers should taper off to the east after lunchtime today. No severe weather today.
This reason we are seeing this rain – a surface low is accelerating to the northeast over the Great Lakes into New England. The rain is ahead of a weak cold front moving through Tennessee right now. That is why our high temperatures will be a bit cooler today.
Winds will quickly shift from out of the north to out of the south later today. Southerly winds will help us warm up tomorrow with high temperatures in the low 70s. A much stronger disturbance will swing through later on Tuesday. That is the one we have our eyes on.
Tuesday – Severe Weather Possible High: 70°
The Storm Prediction Center has put us under an Enhanced Risk for severe weather on Tuesday.
Here is a zoomed in look that the National Weather Service posted:
Temperatures will quickly warm up in the afternoon all thanks to the southerly winds filtering in the warmer air from the Gulf.
This will all move from west to east. The warmer air with dew points in the upper 50s in the afternoon will add to the instability. We will have the necessary ingredients for strong to severe storms developing in the afternoon. The cold front associated with this next system will be pretty strong.
We need to watch the thunderstorms developing ahead of the line of thunderstorms. Eventually a line of thunderstorms will develop late in the afternoon. Strong winds and isolated tornadoes are the primary threats with this system. The southerly winds will pick up around lunchtime into the mid afternoon hours. Winds will gust over 20 mph at times.
Timing: The National Weather Service posted this great graphic of the timing. Most of the showers with embedded thunderstorms will move in late afternoon into the overnight hours.
That said, we cannot rule out storms arriving before that 9 PM ETA window opens. Supercell development is possible in this environment, but it’s pretty unimpressive.
Here is the NAM4’s take:
Thunderstorms will ramp up late in the afternoon.
By late evening you will hear frequent rumbles of thunder while you are getting into bed. This is when the squall line will form ahead of the cold front. Strong winds are possible with thunderstorms during the evening.
The front will move through during the overnight hours.
Do not fixate on these ETAs. We will update this through the afternoon on Twitter and again here later tonight.
Wednesday – Rain Leaves then Clearing High: 52°
Most of the rain will be the east when waking up Wednesday morning.
The pesky clouds will stick around during the afternoon then clear out by Wednesday evening. It will be much cooler on Wednesday. High pressure will then move in late Wednesday into Thursday.
Extended: Low temperatures will be below the freezing mark Wednesday night and Thursday night. Expect sunshine for the end of the week then we will warm up on Friday due to the winds shifting from out of the north to out of the south. This will help filter in warmer air from the Gulf, not to mention the abundant sunshine will help temperatures warm up a bit too. Stay weather aware on Tuesday! We will keep you updated on our Twitter.
This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.
Categories: Forecast Blogs