Watching Another Clipper Tonight

Current Radar 

Today – More Rain or Snow? High: 30°

We’ve got sunshine, which will aid snowmelt.

Rain, but more likely snow, is possible tonight.

We are watching this clipper move our way:

Models disagree about what will really happen as this system moves closer.

The NAM4 thinks it’ll arrive early, possibly even as rain:

WED 3 pm

Then, 3 hours later:

wed 6 pm

Even though the model suggests rain, the temp profiles suggest a little light snow.

However, the HRRR model, which is doing well “initializing” itself (this leads to more confidence), thinks the snow will drive I-24 into Nashville tonight:

This would be less than 1″, if it happens. But still, more snow! That’s unwelcome considering we’ll drop back into the 20°s overnight. We may lose the benefit of improved road conditions.

Who’s right? We’ll see. David is an HRRR believer. We’ll be doing the play-by-play all day on Twitter @NashSevereWx.

Thursday – Warming Up – Waking Up: 23° High: 40°

Expect a warming trend late this week.

Temperatures will warm up into the low 40s under a partly cloudy sky, finally getting some good melting going.

Northerly winds will be calm during the day. Some light isolated showers are possible during the overnight hours Thursday into Friday. A very weak impulse looks like it will move overhead Thursday into Friday. Some models show rain while others do not. Can’s rule out a light shower overnight night Thursday into Friday morning.

Friday – Cold Front – Waking Up: 21° High: 44°

There may be some light showers to our east right before the morning commute.

Winds out of the north will be fairly calm in the morning on Friday. There will some clouds hanging around during the day. A cold front will approach our area from the north and knock temperatures down once again.

I think the winds will pick up a bit due to the steep pressure gradient over us Friday afternoon and evening. Winds will be out of the north filtering in cooler air from the north.

Looks like the cold arctic air will move in overnight Friday into Saturday morning.

Extended: The cold front will reinforce the cooler, drier air for the weekend. Dew points will drop to the single digits on Saturday. Very dry. Temperatures will also stay below the freezing mark on Saturday with a high temperature in the low 30s. The good news is this cold front will be a dry one, so no rain in our area on Saturday.

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