Today – Windy & Clouds Increasing – High: 77°
Hold on to your hats today! The southerly winds will be kickin’ this afternoon with gusts near 15 mph.
The pesky clouds will stick around all day. There will be some peeks of sun in some areas while temperatures warm up into the upper 70s.
We are already seeing some rain just to our west over Jackson and around I-40. The HRRR model (controversially) thinks there will be some batches of rain moving our way around lunchtime ahead of the main system to our west. We may here a few rumbles of thunder this afternoon as well.
However, we aren’t sold on these rain chances. We think the rain may stay west of us for one more day.
The frontal boundary to the west will move very slowly our way. Why? The steering winds are screaming out of the south, rather than from the west or southwest, making it hard for the front to move east. For us here in Tennessee – the western counties will see most of the rain this afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has included them in a general thunderstorm outlook for today, but we are excluded.
Expect a few isolated showers during the overnight hours into the morning on Thursday.
Overnight temperatures will be mild in the low 60s under an overcast sky.
Thursday – Showers and Thunderstorms – Waking Up: 62° High: 72°
During the morning commute, most of the rain will still be to our west. It will be windy during the morning as well. Southerly wind gusts at 20 mph will remain. The line of showers and thunderstorms will begin to move our direction during the early afternoon hours. We can’t rule out some showers ahead of the system around lunchtime.
The Storm Prediction Center has included us in the general thunderstorm outlook for Thursday.
The models show the line to be slow moving as it approaches from the west.
A strong upper level shortwave will move toward the west coast in California. This shortwave will change the upper level system we have been seeing the past couple of days over Texas. This is why we will see rain this week into the weekend. As the system over Texas lifts northeast, we will have rain move into our area on Thursday into Friday morning.
Friday – More Rain – Waking Up: 59° High: 68°
It will be cooler on Friday because the frontal boundary will have passed. It will stall just to our southeast. Rain will linger into the morning hours on Friday. Models show most of the showers tapering off after lunchtime.
Rainfall amounts range across the state. We will see near an inch of rain with locally heavier amounts. The west will see the larger rainfall totals due to the system moving slowly east. We are talking record rainfall amounts for areas in Louisiana, East Texas, and Arkansas.
Now that the upper level pattern has changed, expect to have some shortwaves (pieces of energy aloft) bringing rain into our area late this week into the weekend.
More rain will move in from the southwest late in the afternoon on Friday. We will keep you updated on Friday’s set up!
Moisture will increase in our area Friday night into Saturday.
Extended: More rain is on the way this weekend. Rainfall totals will only get higher. An additional quarter to half an inch can be expected. A warm front will sweep across our area on Saturday as a system moves northeast from the southwest over Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas. Don’t forget to spring the clocks forward an hour before going to be on Saturday. Spring is in the air with these mild temperatures!
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Categories: Forecast Blogs