Models are like your next-door neighbors. You think they are good people, and you feel like you can somewhat trust them. But then you hear that one story about them from ’08 and you start reconsidering everything you’ve ever thought about them.
Author: Elan
Super Soaking Rain This Morning, Maybe More This Weekend?
Some real drought busting rain moving through this morning. Watch out for water over roads and as always, turn around, don’t drown.
HRRR model thinks the current rain moves out by a bit after lunchtime. It then thinks, emphasis on thinks, we stay clear for the remainder of the day. I have my doubts about this, our atmosphere will still be water-loaded. The Wattery may hand out more winning tickets, and they may not be as rare as the one-billion-dollar winning ticket. Outdoor planners stay connected and informed but so far looks okay. If storms do form, more chances of flash flooding and a low probability of a strong storm or two. Not worried about tornadoes.
A Lot More Chances For Rain. Also Drought Update.
Low-Probability Of Flash Flooding + Damaging Winds On Repeat
Today Might Be The Day For Yardwork, Rain Comin’ This Week
It may not rain in the traditional sense today while yardworking, but you’ll be sweating on your greens if you do, does that count as watering?
Most of the rain will probably (?) stay north of us today (or maybe not? keep reading), which is good news for us, but has created serious flash flooding in St. Louis and surrounding areas. 8″+ of rain in and around St. Louis prompted a Flash Flood Emergency, which you may know that term from our March 2021 flash flooding. If you know anyone in that area, give them a shout and check in on them.
“Likely” Rain/Storms, Maybe Too Much? Excessive Heat Begone.
If I had 3 words to sum up the next 7 days…
Thankfully I don’t have a word limit.
Rain this morning is staying to our north in Kentucky.
HRRR model (above) thinks those morning showers fizzle out up there, and it’s not until this afternoon when winning Wattery tickets are handed out. More storms also expected to form after sunset. Storm Prediction Center removed us from any severe weather chances, including tornadoes, lightning is possible with any of the storms, which is enough to alter outdoor plans.
The Heat, Summarized.
No relief this weekend. Heat Advisory today from 11am – 7pm. We’ll probably be reissued one for tomorrow, per NWS Nashville. High temp will get very close to 100°, and the dewpoint close to 70°, giving us a heat index of 105°-109°. No hope for any rain to cool us off. Tomorrow is more of the same story, except maybe some showers around sunset. A/C will be vital.
Heat Advisory + Low-Probability Of Damaging Winds Today
Some morning showers moved through this morning and left as quick as they came.
HRRR model keeps us quiet through the evening, but cannot totally rule out a few Wattery winners this afternoon. Upper 90’s + dewpoints in the low 70’s will give us a heat index in the 105°-109° range, reason for the Heat Advisory. Counties just to our west are under an Excessive Heat Warning. We’ll pass. If you have to be outside today, give your body some breaks. Heat exhaustion/stroke is no joke and it will creep up on you.
The Heat Is Back Along With The Wattery
July was kind enough to give us one day below 90°. It looks like there is a good possibility we finish July with all but one day (yesterday) 90°+.
Today will be the “coolest” day of the foreseeable future. High should reach 90°, paired with dewpoints in the low 70’s will give us a heat index that approaches 100°.
The Streak Ends (Probably), Heat Comes Right Back
Our streak of 28 consecutive days of reaching the 90’s looks to stop at 28. Our high temp looks to only make it to 85° today. It was a good run, some may say a great run. But all good, or bad things must come to an end. 28 days is the 5th longest streak on record. Not as cool of a streak as Cal Ripken Jr.’s or Joey Chestnut. The streak really hasn’t been cool at all, it’s just been hot.