Current Radar
It’s not going to rain. Very low humidity.
High pressure is in charge. It’s the pattern.
I’ve been sneezing.
High pressure will slowly break down and reintroduce rain chances.
Current Radar
The chance of rain is zero.
Well, actually, we win.
Dewpoints barely breaking 40° sounds more like September than April.
Why? The Omega Block is in charge. Its central feature, a bossing high pressure.
Current Radar
South winds are hollering. Sustained winds 15-25 MPH, gusting to 35 MPH. Isolated areas may see gusts to 40 MPH.
We’ll be dry in the morning, watching a surface front stretched north of the Ohio River.
Current Radar
Because Spring.
The HRRR model thinks this will be a light rain, morning event.
Notice rain is possible later tonight, but the HRRR model thinks most of that will escape north of us.
South winds will increase late Sunday morning, and remain strong into the evening. Gusts around 30 MPH, maybe even higher, will be present much of Sunday afternoon.
Current Radar
We start off nice, but a cold front will bring cloud cover and a slight chance of showers after noon. The rain chance looks very low. The GFS model shows no rain. The pro-rain NAM4 model, below, shows very little:
Current Radar
Too much cloud cover this morning, insufficient dew points, and unidirectional wind profiles are among the reasons we didn’t gett tornadic storms today. They were very close. That storm to our SW, then S, was rotating pretty well (it may have dropped a tornado, NWS will confirm later), although it did lose its oomph when it got closer to I-65.
Current Radar
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a “mesoscale discussion” that borders Davidson and Williamson Counties. Here’s a snippet:
In short, our area will likely be placed under some sort of severe weather watch very soon. Winds are close, but not quite where they need to be for a robust tornado threat. However, surface heating and dewpoints continue to rise.
Current Radar
We’ve been covered by clouds this morning, which has prevented storm-making destabilization.
The winds, while strong, are largely unidirectional, which does not support large, tilted updrafts necessary for terrible weather.
Current Radar
Updates reflecting new information from this afternoon are written below in blue.
We’ve already begun to see the clouds moving into our area ahead of the storms we will be seeing tonight into tomorrow. Even with the clouds, temps are expected to climb very quickly into the 70°s.
Current Radar
A few hailers in W Tennessee were ongoing late this afternoon, streaking NNE into Kentucky, where a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is currently in effect.
Although we are excluded from the Watch, some discrete storm cells were sitting to our SW, and should move into our area tonight in advance of an approaching cold front.
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