Why’d It Have To Rain Today?
The HRRR model thinks this will be a light rain, morning event.
Notice rain is possible later tonight, but the HRRR model thinks most of that will escape north of us.
Another Windy Day
South winds will increase late Sunday morning, and remain strong into the evening. Gusts around 30 MPH, maybe even higher, will be present much of Sunday afternoon.
The HRRR model thinks the strongest winds will be in West TN:
More Rain Monday
We’ll be dry in the morning, watching a surface front stretched north of the Ohio River.
We will have two chances for Monday rain. The red-circled showers may arrive during the afternoon. The purple-drawn front will descend south and bring us heavy rain and thunderstorms:
The GFS model agrees with the late-Monday-night ETA, and thinks it will be very heavy rain:
This 2″ in 3 hours is hard to believe. That’s more rain than appears possible considering the precipitable water in the GFS sounding is 1.47″ and the rain should be moving quickly – faster moving rain means less rain. We’d have to be really unlucky to get more than 2″ in 3 hours. The Euro has just over 1″. Officially, the forecast is for just under 1″.
Thunderstorms may accompany the rain, but nothing severe is expected. The real shenanigans will be in the Ark-La-Tex area:
If these models are correct, and you can dodge the afternoon showers, you might get in your Monday evening outdoorsy activities before the bottom falls out.
After That, Usual Stuff
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Categories: Forecast Blogs