What: strong to severe thunderstorms with lightning and heavy rain, containing probabilities for damaging winds, hail, localized flooding, and maybe a tornado.
When: We aren’t exactly sure. Expect it to arrive anywhere from mid/late afternoon into tonight.
Dry air set up today between us and Clarksville. As I write this, the dewpoint in Nashville is d-r-y in the upper 40°s, but it’s pretty humid in Clarksville and points northwest, where the dewpoint is over 60°:
Good morning, it’s Easter Sunday!
Today’s forecast is difficult. We want to give you the “what, when, where, and how much,” which is do-able when there’s a cold front or something obvious and trackable setting off the rain.
Monday looks fantastic, with a little bit more humidity than we saw today.
NWS-Nashville kicked off the afternoon forecast discussion with:
Models are still not handling the onset of rain for Tuesday`s system very well.
The best thinking is an afternoon ETA, but we may see rain start in the morning, especially north of I-40.
Here we are smack in the middle of what has been a very active spring severe storm season. But it looks like we’re taking a break from that this week.
Storms are brewing tomorrow. They could be significant, damaging storms, but the forecast has uncertainties.
For a detailed breakdown from Charlie Neese, watch the Periscope he did at 8:30 PM tonight.
The lunchtime update from the Storm Prediction Center said the word “outbreak.” That’s not good. SPC mostly refers to the area to our south and southeast, and although our risk here isn’t as high as it is elsewhere, it still poses a very real, but conditional and uncertain, threat. Another update is not due from the SPC until after we go to bed
We will approach 80° today as southern winds pump warm, moist air into Middle Tennessee.
Storms are brewing tomorrow. They could be significant, damaging storms, but the forecast has uncertainties.
The lunchtime update from the Storm Prediction Center said the word “outbreak.” That’s not good. Mostly, their “outbreak” reference refers to the area to our south and southeast, but they are not discounting that here.
It is going to rain Monday.
We think it’ll start in the morning.
The HRRR model predicts rain will start in the wee hours of Monday morning and last through the morning rush hour:
The GFS model agrees. It predicts a lot of rain in the morning.
Surface high pressure will move east today. This means south winds and warmer temps, about 10° to 15° higher than yesterday. Some clouds will be mixed in.
Clouds increase tonight ahead of the next rain system, due tomorrow.
Hey y’all.
First, everyone take a deep breath. Like any good forecast, below you will find important details, nuance, and uncertainties.
Resist any tendency to panic at the details that may scare you, or ignore the things which may limit the threat.
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