Benign is good, y ‘all.

Here we are smack in the middle of what has been a very active spring severe storm season. But it looks like we’re taking a break from that this week. read more

Storms are brewing tomorrow. They could be significant, damaging storms, but the forecast has uncertainties.

For a detailed breakdown from Charlie Neese, watch the Periscope he did at 8:30 PM tonight.

Rising Concern Over Wednesday’s Severe Weather Potential

The lunchtime update from the Storm Prediction Center said the word “outbreak.” That’s not good. SPC mostly refers to the area to our south and southeast, and although our risk here isn’t as high as it is elsewhere, it still poses a very real, but conditional and uncertain, threat. Another update is not due from the SPC until after we go to bed read more

We will approach 80° today as southern winds pump warm, moist air into Middle Tennessee.

Storms are brewing tomorrow. They could be significant, damaging storms, but the forecast has uncertainties.

Rising Concern Over Wednesday’s Severe Weather Potential

The lunchtime update from the Storm Prediction Center said the word “outbreak.” That’s not good. Mostly, their “outbreak” reference refers to the area to our south and southeast, but they are not discounting that here. read more

Monday Rain; Rainout Appears Likely

It is going to rain Monday.

We think it’ll start in the morning.

The HRRR model predicts rain will start in the wee hours of Monday morning and last through the morning rush hour:

The GFS model agrees. It predicts a lot of rain in the morning. read more

Warmer Sunday

Surface high pressure will move east today. This means south winds and warmer temps, about 10° to 15° higher than yesterday. Some clouds will be mixed in.

Clouds increase tonight ahead of the next rain system, due tomorrow. read more

Hey y’all.

First, everyone take a deep breath. Like any good forecast, below you will find important details, nuance, and uncertainties.

Resist any tendency to panic at the details that may scare you, or ignore the things which may limit the threat. read more

Strong or Severe Thunderstorms Possible Monday

Our active Spring continues. Another storm system is on the way.

Rain is possible in the morning, as what’s left from the severe weather system in Oklahoma moves east. However, it looks more like those storms will impact west Tennessee and move into Kentucky. So says the HRRR model, below: read more

A Few Off/On Showers Sunday, But Most of the Rain is Gone

Most of the rain has gone east. The HRRR model, below, thinks a few new showers will develop and give us a chance of a passing shower or two today:

Here it is, zoomed in:

If you aren’t already rained out from rain yesterday and overnight, you should be good to go for outdoor stuff. The Nashville Chili Fest is a “Go,” if risk averse, have an umbrella nearby, but you may not need it. read more

Tonight: Mostly Cloudy and Windy

There are clouds way overhead today. Notice the other clouds, the lower ones, moving north. They’re being blown by strong south winds.

We’ve already had a gust to 31 MPH at BNA.

These winds are expected to carry over through the night into tomorrow. read more

Spring Starts Warmer, Cloudier

That was a good week and a half of winter. Spring begins Monday.

South winds will move high temps into the mid 70°s.

We’ve taken the chance of rain out of the forecast for Monday afternoon, although expect clouds and don’t be shocked if you see a sprinkle. read more