Rain on the Way


Dry air set up today between us and Clarksville. As I write this, the dewpoint in Nashville is d-r-y in the upper 40°s, but it’s pretty humid in Clarksville and points northwest, where the dewpoint is over 60°:

As a result, the rain and thunderstorms have been safely stuck to our NW:

The dry air will slowly erode overnight, giving way to the moisture/humid air and introducing rain chances for Monday. There is no real consensus on when Monday that’ll happen.


It should rain. We aren’t sure when.

1.  The HRRR model thinks rain will arrive beginning around midnight, with a hint of more on the way.

2. The WRF-ARW model believes Monday will be pretty wet, with off and on showers and thunderstorms happening all day:

Monday 1 AM to 7 PM

3. Then there’s the NAM3 model. It has scattered showers before lunch, then a break, then heavier rain scooting in late Monday night:

Monday 10AM to Tuesday at 5AM

Of the global models, the GFS (below), thinks we’ll get a lot of rain between 7 AM and 7 PM Monday:

But of course, the Euro model has about half that.

Some thunderstorms should accompany the rain, and maybe a few will be strong, but nothing to worry about.

So, pretty clear and helpful, right? To summarize what you just read:

It should rain tomorrow, y’all. We don’t really know when. The best chance is mid/late afternoon.

Rest of the Week

This is the point of the forecast where speaking in specifics gets us in trouble.

Tuesday — the boundary creating all the uncertainty Monday should shift a bit south. So, yeah, maybe some more rain and few thunderstorms, but most of it should be south and east of us.

Wednesday — chance of rain will be pretty low.

Thursday — another front will be on the way, but the models aren’t sure what that will look like. One set of model data says we may see a few strong storms (see below), but others disagree.

Friday — eh. Maybe some rain, but probably not.

The Next Weekend Guess

Showers and thunderstorms are possible sometime next weekend, then some cooler (but not cold) temps. It’s just way too far away to say anything smart or helpful about it.

Finally, 19 Years Ago Today

The Storm Stories episode:

Some raw footage:

Let’s hope never again.