Severe Weather Threat Today
What: strong to severe thunderstorms with lightning and heavy rain, containing probabilities for damaging winds, hail, localized flooding, and maybe a tornado.
When: We aren’t exactly sure. Expect it to arrive anywhere from mid/late afternoon into tonight.
HRRR model: mid/late afternoon. Here the simulated radar running from 1 PM to 7 PM, in hourly increments.
A late afternoon arrival will present the more likely storm threat. We will remain “capped” this morning and through lunchtime. The cap will prevent storms and allow the severe atmosphere to mature. Unlike Friday, we think the cap will break mid/late afternoon, allowing storms to roll through.
For full disclosure, not all models agree on the mid/late afternoon ETA. The NAM3 model ETA is 10 PM. This model runs from 4 PM Sunday to Tuesday 5 AM, in three hour increments.
If this after-dark ETA happens, storms should be weaker.
Stay connected to reliable weather sources today. We’ll be tweeting frequent ETA updates.
A tornado is the least likely severe weather threat, but the threat is not zero.
Large Hail (1″+)
Going to the Preds game? Covered parking garages are preferred for those unwilling to take the risk.
Damaging Wind (58+ MPH)
Damaging winds may be in the form of a microburst inside stronger thunderstorms. Microbursts aren’t tornadoes, but the winds they produce create low-strength tornado wind speeds. They happen when very strong winds fall out of the storm, crash to the ground, and spread out in all directions like ripples on a pond from a dropped rock. Here’s an example:
Heavy Rain Likely: NWS forecasts over 1″ of rain today, which is enough to wash out outdoor activities and maybe wreck fields for practices/games Monday night.
It’s Going to be Windy: Before storm arrive, winds will run in the low 20 MPH range, gusting to near 40 MPH. A Wind Advisory was issued while we slept:
Secure all trampolines, deck umbrellas, and lightweight family members.
Hot & Humid: slightly less humid than yesterday, but still humid. High 86°.
Cooler Monday & Tuesday
We’ll wake up to 56° Monday morning, 50° Tuesday morning, with highs 71° Monday and 79° Tuesday. Humidity will drop off significantly, with dewpoints in the mid-40°s.
Rain chances return Wednesday and Thursday; however, the storm potential is too difficult to predict due to model uncertainty.
Stay tuned to reliable weather sources today.
Categories: Forecast Blogs