Monday Rain; Rainout Appears Likely
It is going to rain Monday.
We think it’ll start in the morning.
The HRRR model predicts rain will start in the wee hours of Monday morning and last through the morning rush hour:
The GFS model agrees. It predicts a lot of rain in the morning.
So does the NAM3 model, which predicts well over 0.5″ by 10 AM.
(This model is probably overdoing it, but it is within the range of possibility).
Even the European model agrees, delivering a washout through the morning and early afternoon hours.
Either way, sports are in real jeopardy of a rainout Monday night. Our NWS office has us down for just under 0.5″ Monday.
As for thunderstorms, maybe a few before noon, with an even smaller chance after noon. The strong or severe thunderstorm potential remains to our south and southeast of us Monday.
A few showers may arrive early evening, but the bulk of the rain is expected before then.
Beautiful Tuesday; Watching Wednesday’s Severe Storm Potential
Severe weather is possible Wednesday. The Storm Prediction Center has us included on the western edge of a huge generalized risk area from Columbus, OH, to the Gulf of Mexico. Those in this area have a 15% probability of a hail, wind, or tornado within 25 miles of them.
Just as it did this morning, detailed GFS model data continues to predict an environment with plenty of instability/storm food and shear for damaging winds and some hail. Unlike this morning’s runs, the current run depicts an atmosphere that could support tornadoes.
This morning’s run of the Euro model predicted a very storm-friendly atmosphere in Nashville after noon Wednesday, with damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes all possible. The latest run of the Euro still has a storm friendly atmosphere, although it does not look quite as bad. Just as we drew no conclusions from this morning’s run, we draw no conclusion from this latest run.
Uncertainties remain high. Our two main forecast tools at this range, the GFS and Euro models, have meaningful differences. The GFS shows a lot of storms to our south on Wednesday, which may block our supply of storm food; recall this is what happened last week, sparing us from a big event. It’s also entirely possible the severe weather threat will not develop until it’s east of us, and moving away. Draw only one conclusion: there is a severe weather potential Wednesday, with a time frame ETA Wednesday afternoon/evening.
Cooler Thursday, Friday, & Saturday
Wednesday’s storm system will trigger cooler temps. Highs 60° Thursday and Friday, with lows around 40° Friday and Saturday mornings.
We should be dry for Saturday sports.
Categories: Forecast Blogs