“We expect some light accumulations tomorrow afternoon mainly north of I-40 and east of I-24 as an upper trough swings across Middle Tennessee. Despite high pressure building in at the surface, there does appear to be enough moisture and lift aloft to product some light snow with accumulations up to 1/2″ possible.” read more

–It’s going to rain this weekend. Off and on. Some downpours. Some dry spells.

–When exactly?

–Knowledge of exact timing would be great, but rain follows no schedule. /smug phrasemaking satisfaction smirk/. read more

Radar estimated rainfall had about 0.75″ on average across Will Co from this morning’s lightningstorm. Needed it, but the timing stunk. Others got 0.25″ or so across Nashville.

Expect temps Sunday morning 13° colder than this morning. (This does not say it will be minus 13 tomorrow morning, it’s a 24 hour temp change graf). read more

Friday morning rush hour may be rainy, maybe even heavy-rainy. HRRR model:

• Previous model runs suggested lightning and maybe a few strong cells. But recent runs show this morning wave weakening on approach. HRRR forecast sounding above shows a big drop in storm fuel as this line arrives.
• Not concerned by this round.
• This forecast may change.

Another storm round is possible later in the day Friday. I’ll update the HRRR model tonight with more data, but from what we see in the data now: read more

Dewpoints magnificent today: mid/upper 50s. 👍🏽. Monday, about the same.

Then…

Dewps up Monday night – crossing 60. By Tuesday we’re approaching 65. Upper 60s Thursday night then hanging around 70 Friday into next weekend. Ooooof. read more

Morning rain and storms SE of us this morning. Seen by mid level water vapor imagery:

Lightningstorms for some of us are likely late this afternoon.

• Exactly when and where is unclear. Long live the summertime wattery.
• Unlikely all of us will get rain.

HRRR model for today, time stamp upper right (subtract 1 hour): read more

Plans tonight may be interrupted by random, pop up downpours and thunderstorms.

• A warm front came thru today, sparking storms that went up, and collapsed fast.
• Some of us will probably see a few downpours with lightning later this afternoon and early tonight, ending shortly after sundown.
• Those with outdoor concert plans should be prepared.

HRRR model for tonight:

Same thing Sunday. Heat and humidity build through the afternoon, sparking downpours with lightning late afternoon through early evening. HRRR model: read more