Yet again, the weather is throwing two punches at us during a holiday: early morning, late afternoon/early evening. Neither is certain.
Monday Morning – First Punch
“The main trough axis will inch closer to Middle Tennessee overnight, with scattered showers and storms occurring mainly during the 06z-12z period.” (NWS Area Forecast Discussion, 135 pm CDT Sun Sep 1 2013).
Sunday & Monday
Overview. A series of shortwaves (rain/storms) will be diving NW to SE Sunday & Monday. Monday night, a cold-front will sweep the rain and humidity.
Temps. Monday should be a bit cooler than Sunday. Outside the pockets of rain/storm activity, temps will be in the mid 90s Sunday, and low 90s Monday. The heat index will be dancing around the mid to upper 90s Sunday, and in the low 90s Monday.
First, let’s review final rainfall totals from Thursday’s Flash Flood:
Despite destroying the record of 1.99″ set in 1923, the record remains because the official measurement is taken at the airport, where rainfall totals didn’t even approach 1.99″.
Tonight & Tomorrow – Rain Likely – Saturday’s High 88
Fri 7pm 79 . 10pm 77
Sat 7am 74 . 10am 82 . 1pm 86 . 4pm 88 . 7pm 85 . 10pm 77
Behold this epic, informative run-on sentence from the NWS afternoon forecast discussion:
THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS A BROAD SWATH FROM PLAINS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS LADEN WITH MOISTURE WITH THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT TONIGHT BEING FROM NORTHERN ARKANSAS ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE AND THE NORTH HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE WHERE LOCALLY ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAIN COULD FALL AT JUST ABOUT ANY LOCATION IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT WITH MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST SAGS DOWN INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AS WARM FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER BY SUNDAY.
Davidson County is currently (at 6 a.m.) under a Flash Flood Warning and Flood Advisories for Whites Creek at Bordeaux and Dry Creek at Edenwold. Rain will continue to “train” across Davidson County until around 7 a.m. or so.
So, what about tonight? We asked three weather models:
HRRR
According to the HRRR, the rain will return after lunch. Here it is at 1 p.m.:
The rain hangs around for a few hours, then is gone in time for the Titans game, Live On The Green, etc.
The other models do not agree.
RAP
This model keeps a stray shower around for kickoff and the opening act tonight. Here it is at 7 p.m.:
NAM
The NAM also predicts rain at the game/concert tonight, at least at the start:
Our NWS puts the rain chances at 50% to 60% for late afternoon/early evening. More from our NWS:
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AT TIMES...PRODUCING GUSTY WIND AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING.
First and Foremost, this post is brought to you by the makers of Mountain Dew, the only reason I’m currently seated upright. I’ve been up since 4 a.m., and my rule (which today seems ridiculous) is No Coffee After 2:30 p.m., so in order to function I reached for a Dew (it’s diet, for those of you concerned about me). This is my first soda in several months, and I’m drinking it fully realizing it’s the diet version of 19.25 teaspoons of sugar:
