Around 7 a.m., a broken line of light showers crossed the Mississippi River, heading east toward Nashville.
Morning water vapor imagery shows the cold front responsible for pushing those showers east:
The HRRR (in our opinion, it’s the best short-range weather model) predicts the rain will continue to move east, but (1) become less widespread, (2) slow down, and, if it’s even possible, (3) become less intense. The latest run of the HRRR predicts a 2 p.m. ETA:
Don’t get hung up on the 2 p.m. ETA. We could see it any time before or after noon.
It looks like everyone will get some of this light rain, off and on, during the afternoon. If you’re going to be outside, you’ll need rain gear, however:
(1) Rainfall totals will be small (0.06″ through 7 p.m.), and
(2) No thunderstorms, no lightning, no heavy rain expected (good news, Titans fans & 4:30 p.m. outdoor grillers),
Cloud cover will keep temps low. Expect 67 at 10 a.m., 72 by 1 p.m., with an afternoon high of 74. We’ll dip down to 68 by 7 p.m., 64 by 10 p.m.
Winds will be light, coming out of the south.
Monday – Cloudy, Lingering Rain Chances – High 78
The bus stop temp will be around 60. Off/on rain from Sunday may continue for the first half of the day, thanks to the weakening, stalling cold front. Doubt there will be enough rain to call off elementary school recess. Only 0.20″ is forecast over the 36 hour period from Sunday to the first part of Monday.
Next Two Weathermakers This Week
Wake up temps will be in the low 60s, with afternoon highs in the low 80s. There are two chances of rain/storms:
Wednesday/Thursday — our NWS thinks we may see rain, and possibly a few thunderstorms.
Next Weekend — predicting weather system behavior and timing this far away is difficult, especially in situations like these where the weather models disagree significantly. One model says “weak rain” on Friday. Another says “heavy rain/storms on Saturday.” Way too much uncertainty to make a call. The point is: there’s a chance of rain Friday and/or Saturday.
Categories: Forecast Blogs