Current Radar

Frontal Boundary Takes One Step Forward, Two Steps Back

Update: An approaching cold front will spark shower activity later this afternoon and evening. Expect rain sometime around the late evening commute through the overnight.

Once the weak cold front passes to the south of our two-county area, it will establish itself as a stationary front for a bit across the southern TN border. Highs on Friday afternoon will be in the middle 50s, averaging about 15º cooler than today’s high of 70º. Tomorrow night, warm air surges back into the region ahead of a warm front. Speaking of warm, check out this guinea pig: read more

Hold Onto Your Hats!

In addition to strapping down any loose items outside, you’ll need the rain gear tonight/tomorrow. Latest high resolution guidance shows rain moving through the Davidson/Williamson County area: read more

Music City Bowl Forecast

6 PM – 40º, temperatures falling into the 30s

Ch-ch-ch-ch-Changes

Overnight tonight, winds will turn out of the south helping to bring in abundant moisture and an increase in cloud cover. Rain will quickly develop through Saturday morning and early afternoon, starting around 10 AM, and spreading over our area by late afternoon. If you have New Year’s Eve plans and are going to be outside at all for any period of time, bring the rain gear. read more

Cool Day To End the Work Week

We don’t rebound quite as nicely temperature-wise on Friday, staying in the mid to upper 40s for highs. Watch below as colder air filters in over the next 24 hours:

Wind direction begins to switch on Friday night to a southerly direction, foreshadowing changes for Saturday.

A Shortwave and A Cold Front Walked Into A Bar…

That would be a pretty interesting story. Right now, our weather does look to get fairly interesting, especially heading into the new year.

Starting Saturday, southerly flow in cooperation with a shortwave (small wave/disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere) will kick off some shower activity.

Saturday looks to be a pretty soggy day, as does Sunday, with a couple small breaks of dry weather in between. If you have any outdoor plans this weekend, you’re going to want to move them inside or take the rain gear along.

What About Temperatures?

A gradual warming trend will ensue, particularly Sunday and Monday, where temperatures soar into the 50s and 60s respectively.

The Cold Front

Late Monday night is currently the expected timing for a main batch of showers and some thunderstorms to rumble through the area. A few of these could be strong with one or two isolated severe storms. This is something the Storm Prediction Center is currently keeping an eye on:

For late Day-4/Sunday into Day-5/Monday, a more prominent wave could interact with more appreciable moisture/buoyancy from parts of east Texas toward the lower MS and TN Valley region (and perhaps areas farther north). This could support some severe potential. However, the relatively small wavelength and amplitude of this disturbance, and limited predictability inherent to such a mesoscale-sized system, limit confidence in the timing/location/magnitude of the severe risk. read more

NWS Nashville

Back in 1982 on this day, Nashville warmed up to a record 75°. Will we see that today? Not quite, as we’re more on the order of 20° cooler than that record. 

Rain Free? Not For Long

The NAM (North American Model) above handles tomorrow’s rain event fairly well. Late Wednesday evening, a piece of atmospheric energy will approach us from the west, setting off a few showers and storms. Activity continues through the overnight hours into Thursday’s AM rush hour, but by then is already pushing east. read more

Current Radar

Up On the Housetop, Raindrops Fall

Merry Christmas Eve and an equally happy start to Hanukkah for all who celebrate. We won’t start out dry, unfortunately, as a super-soaking rainmaker is slowly traversing middle Tennessee today.

What to expect read more

Oh, Cloudy Day

A rain maker is already moving through the Missouri valley and will eventually reach us by early Saturday morning.

The HRRR model has a good handle on this through the evening:

Rain On Christmas Eve, No Snow

Tree tops will glisten and children can still listen for sleigh bells in the rain. I’ll be dreaming of another white Christmas for next year. read more

Surprise! Snow Flurries End Late Morning

Weather is an interesting phenomenon and interesting it was this morning. Just enough energy and available moisture have combined to produce a light dusting in middle Tennessee…all of this falling below the scope of radar where we would normally see it. read more

Probabilities

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northwestern Alabama Southeastern Arkansas Northeastern Louisiana West-central through northern Mississippi Southwestern and middle Tennessee * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 855 PM until 300 AM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A band of strong to locally severe storms near an intense cold front will move across the watch area through much of the overnight hours, offering a risk of sporadic damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes possible. Isolated severe storms still may form ahead of that band also. See SPC mesoscale discussions 1893-1894 for initial meteorological reasoning. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles either side of a line from 25 miles west northwest of Monroe LA to 15 miles east of Nashville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). read more

Probabilities

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Arkansas Southern Indiana Western and Central Kentucky Southeast Missouri Northern Mississippi Western and Middle Tennessee * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 900 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify along and ahead of a cold front moving across the watch area this afternoon and evening. The strongest storms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles east and west of a line from 90 miles northeast of Bowling Green KY to 50 miles southeast of Little Rock AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). read more