Update: Will requested more cowbell in this blog post, so.
“…I can feel it comin’ in the air tonight…”
One more day of calm, warm weather before another severe storm maker rolls through the southeast. Today you may notice a slight breeze from the south. This is Mother Nature getting to work on hotter temps and more moisture for our area.
Partly cloudy skies this morning will gradually become mostly cloudy by late afternoon/early evening. Temperatures today will approach 80º!
Overview
The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded a majority of our area to an “Enhanced Risk” (3 out of 5) for seeing severe thunderstorms tomorrow. A small portion of Davidson and Williamson Counties, mainly west of I-65, are now in a “Moderate Risk” (4 out of 5).
We’ve already see scattered showers with a few thunderstorms today. The main line of showers that we were initially watching passed through earlier today. There are still some more scattered showers and thunderstorms around the area, with some models wanting to push them through our area during the evening tonight.
We are on an upward trend with temperatures — today, approaching 70º, Friday in the mid 70s. A gradual increase in cloudiness is forecast for Friday, ahead of our next *several* weather makers.
Updated: Let’s start with the NAM3 Model…
Good news…the severe thunderstorm watch is cancelled and our threat for severe weather is over!
Dry weather will persist until Saturday, when another potent system develops over the midwest and moves our direction. Showers and thunderstorms look likely on Saturday, and there is concern that some of these could be strong or severe. While the Storm Prediction Center has not yet highlighted our area for severe weather potential, we will be keeping a close eye on this as the weekend approaches. If there is severe weather Saturday, it will likely be after noon.
The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded much of our area, except for those north of I-40, to an enhanced risk for severe weather. This does not appear to be a Tornado Day; instead, the risk is mainly damaging straight line winds, with a side of large hail, a brief period of torrential rainfall, and frequent lightning.
A Freeze Warning has been issued by NWS Nashville, once again, for Thursday morning:
Dew points/moisture will increase through the day on Friday, along with high temperatures in the low 60s. By Friday afternoon, showers will be on the increase, with a chance for isolated thunderstorms by evening. No severe weather is expected.
