Update: Will requested more cowbell in this blog post, so.
As Phil Collins Would Sing…
“…I can feel it comin’ in the air tonight…”
One more day of calm, warm weather before another severe storm maker rolls through the southeast. Today you may notice a slight breeze from the south. This is Mother Nature getting to work on hotter temps and more moisture for our area.
GFS 10-meter Wind at 7PM — Notice the southerly flow
All in all, wind directions like these ahead of an approaching system are signs of something to come.
Severe Weather Potential For Wednesday
What do forecasters from the Storm Prediction Center in Oklahoma have to say for us tomorrow?
They believe that anywhere in the red-shaded area within 25 miles of any point, someone has a 30% chance of being affected by severe weather Wednesday. Keep in mind, that blob of red extends from the Gulf Coast all the way to Cincinnati, Ohio. This storm maker is expected to have far reaching impacts, which is why so many cities are under a threat for nasty weather tomorrow. Let’s break down what we expect for Davidson/Williamson Counties in Tennessee:
What
Damaging winds, large hail, isolated tornadoes — these all are in play for Wednesday. Areas along and east of I-65 could see significant severe weather, which means very strong winds, very large hail, and a strong tornado cannot be ruled out.
When
The latest thinking, which lines up well with the NAM3 model, is to expect storms any time after 3PM Wednesday, through about 9PM.
Latest NAM3 Loop
Potential Impacts
- RUSH HOUR EVENT
- Just like we have seen recently, storms can pose problems for AM or PM rush hours. Schools should mostly be let out by the time storms get here Wednesday, but we aren’t sold on that yet. After-school programs and everyone letting out of work between 4-7PM should definitely be monitoring the weather for storms approaching.
- If you are on the road, which hopefully you are not, and storms are impending, do not take shelter under an overpass! This is bad news for when winds sweep up underneath the bridge and speed up as they do, creating a wind tunnel effect.
- It would be preferable to have people keeping up with weather developments Wednesday afternoon, and if storms are approaching, to stay put until they pass. Those easy actions can save your life and others.
- Just like we have seen recently, storms can pose problems for AM or PM rush hours. Schools should mostly be let out by the time storms get here Wednesday, but we aren’t sold on that yet. After-school programs and everyone letting out of work between 4-7PM should definitely be monitoring the weather for storms approaching.
When you decided to live here, you signed up to play: Low Probability, High Impact Severe Weather! In this game, defense wins championships.
— NashSevereWx (@NashSevereWx) April 4, 2017
Uncertainties…Embrace Them!
Q: What if we don’t get storms?
After all, there’s potential that the worst of them could form east of I-65 and we don’t see much in the way of rain at all. This is a fast-moving piece of energy crossing the U.S., so even if we do see storms, they won’t last long in one given area…very fast movers.
Q: Do we trust the models enough to have a good guess?
Yes and no. In fact, I took a class recently that taught me to totally doubt weather models. Can you believe that? They’re basically every meteorologist’s go-to for information these days, but I was being taught to distrust them.
Why? Because computer models are man-made. They are bound to have assumptions, errors, miscalculations, etc. If the models were created by Mother Nature herself, we would always be right and then what fun would that be?
Q: For Wednesday, though, do we trust the models?
I think timing is nailed down pretty solidly at this point, yes. What is unknown is whether or not storms fire up fast enough to our west to make any sort of impact on us between 4-7PM.
Keep an eye to the sky and another to your smartphone…follow us @NashSevereWx on Twitter for updates on the forecast for tomorrow and as storms (maybe) roll through the area Wednesday afternoon.
Extended Outlook
Prepare for cooler temps on Thursday and Friday with afternoon highs in the upper 50s! There’s an old tale that says to not count out a hard freeze in April, and we may get close to it on Friday night.
Allergy Update and 5-Day Forecast From Pollen.com
Looks like “JEM” is causing allergy sufferers lots of problems, including me…juniper, elm, and maple.
Not much relief over the next several days, except maybe a bit of a drop off in pollen counts after Wednesday’s storms.
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