The river is expected to remain at the same level or barely recede by the weekend. If you come across a flooded road, turn around don’t drown.
Ingredients are coming into play for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy rainfall and severe potential, today through the weekend.
A flood advisory has been extended for the Stones River, but the good news is that the river stage level is falling:
If you run across areas like Lebanon Road, do not attempt to drive through any amount of water. Turn around, don’t drown.
The worst of the rain/storms is gone, but…
A few active flood warnings/advisories are in effect, across the Davidson/Williamson County areas. These are attributed to heavy rainfall causing stream and river rises that could run over into low-lying areas. We’ve already seen evidence of flooding in many spots!
Update: The latest run of the HRRR Model isn’t picking up all too well on showers/storms currently moving into middle Tennessee, headed our way. In short, let’s keep an eye on radar as a chance for rain may increase in the next few hours. If the activity holds together, it will impact Nashville proper during the start of the PM commute (4:00-4:30PM).
GFS Model Loop Through Monday
Of course, this model run alone is not Gospel. However, an active pattern with intermixed dry periods are expected over the next 7 days.
Wednesday and Thursday will be predominantly dry with temperatures into the 80s. A frontal boundary will approach the area Friday, increasing our chances for storms. By Saturday evening, a decent amount of instability and shear will be present to set off thunderstorms along a well-formed cold front. No official concerns of severe weather are warranted yet, but this could very well change as the event approaches.
Unseasonably warm weather continues across much of the southeast, including middle Tennessee this weekend. Southerly flow will begin to bring in more moisture tonight and tomorrow, foreshadowing our next rainy experience.
High pressure will take hold for the next couple of days, encompassing middle Tennessee in a dome of warm and mostly dry air. Temperatures tomorrow will be in the mid-80s, approaching 90ºF.
The record for maximum daily temperature on April 14th was 89º set back in 1887. We may get close to this tomorrow.
The HRRR , has a few showers and isolated storms rumbling through between evening rush hour and early Wednesday morning:
HRRR Model Loop
Going to the Sounds baseball game?
Follow in-stadium policy, but it would be advisable to have some sort of rain gear handy. We are confident in rain, but the “exactly when” is still a question mark. Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter this evening for updates.
NWS Nashville made a great point this morning:
“This is a remarkably uneventful forecast for April, with no severe storms or other significant wx through the next 7 days. After today, temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above normal each day.”
…WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING…
* TIMING…through 10 pm CDT this evening
* WINDS…sustained breezy winds of 15 to 25 mph…with gusts of 40 to 45 mph possible
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