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Sunday: 1″+ Rain, Wintry Shenanigans Possible Late / Early Monday

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loop

Temps Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

 

Saturday Clouds Take Over High 66

We’ll remain dry through the daylight hours. A chance of rain arrives after dark, but we think it’ll hold off until midnight or the wee hours of Sunday morning.

SundayRain; Wintry Shenanigans Late? – AM Low 50, PM High 55, Overnight Low 35

The Hi-Res NAM predicts a rain ETA of 3 AM:

As you can see, that’s a lot of rain. A few thunderstorms may be mixed in, but we aren’t concerned about any strong/severe storms.

While it’s raining, we’ll be sitting beneath a long west to east boundary between warm/wet air and colder/drier air. The cold air will eventually win this battle, then send us a cold wind which will keep our temps in the mid/upper 50s:

Expect over 1″ of rain Sunday:

Late Sunday night, we’ll have to watch for wintry precip. From our NWS at 5:05 AM this morning:

This looks like Act 12 of the Play: Ice and Snow Juuuuust Baaaaaarely Missing You to the North.

We* should be OK. We don’t think any wintry precip will stick as long as the forecast low temp in Nashville is 35 and the forecast low dew point stays at 33 (too warm to “wet bulb” our way to snow).

*except for poor Joelton, land of wooly mammoths, Superman villains, and the Secret Rebel Base.

Notice the yellow-underlined text above. A wobble south could change things, so keep an eye on it. For example, the Hi-Res NAM draws the freezing line south about 40 miles, putting us all in the “wintry mix” zone. That’s not the current forecast, but it may turn out to be right. We shall see.

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