With a steady, light rain arriving, the next question is: what about the morning?

Our NWS says there’s a “chance” of rain.  I asked three models what they thought. Their opinions:

1.     HRRR says the rain will be gone by 3am: read more

Our two short term weather models (HRRRand RAP) think rain will arrive before dark. The rain is coming from the SW (around Memphis) and will move NE. Don’t bet anything on the timing (models are often off by hours), just know the timing in these models are decent indicators of what’s to come. read more

Saturday

Our NWS forecasts no rain tomorrow morning, a chance of rain between 1pm and 7pm, and after that, yes, it’s going to rain until around 4am Sunday morning, perhaps even longer than that.

A quick look at two models illustrates the rain’s arrival. read more

Yesterday’s weather models suggested rain Easter morning. Today’s models are saying the same thing:

Here’s what the European model looks like for us at 7AM Sunday morning. The rain is pink on this image: read more

Some of you are hoping to have outdoor services celebrating Jesus’ resurrection. Others may be planning to wear fancy clothes and hide eggs outside Sunday morning. Many of you will be doing both. read more

There are two main short-range wx models: the RAP (Rapid Refresh) and HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh). These are models, not forecasts, and can be wrong. Below are middle-of-the-night & morning rush hour snap shots of how much snow the models will think will fall in a one hour period. read more

Here’s the NWS Graphic for snowfall accumulations overnight.

Radar at 4:07 pm shows some light to moderate precipitation driving down I-24 from W Kentucky and S Illinois:

Wx models keep that precip coming. Almost all precip today has fallen as snow flurries, which should continue tonight. The HRRR thinks we’ll be up to an inch of accumulated snowfall as of 4am Tuesday morning. Keep in mind, this is just one weather model, not a forecast, and could be wrong:

Total Accumulated Snowfall based on the HRRR wx model. It’s just one model & may be wrong.

But, will it stick?  The NWS think it might, mostly in Davidson County:

MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS SEEN TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BELIEVE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG UNTREATED ROADWAYS, BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES, AS THE SNOW INTENSITY INCREASES. SOME SLIPPERY SPOTS COULD ALSO DEVELOP ALONG ROADS IN OTHER PARTS OF THE MID-STATE, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE I-24 CORRIDOR (INCLUDING THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA). EXPECT UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IN AREAS JUST WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, RANGING TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH IN THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA. read more

Here’s what happened overnight:

Today we may see snow in the air from time to time, some of it falling as rain, some of it as snow. Temps will be above freezing, so we don’t expect it to stick to much – mainly just decks, grills and elevated surfaces – if anything at all.

More of the same tonight.  NWS says:

NASHVILLE WILL BE JUST BELOW FREEZING AND WILL LIKELY WARM UP ENOUGH ON TUESDAY MORNING THAT ANY PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO A RAIN SNOW MIX BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND COOL. read more

No need to panic or party, but seriously, it’s late March and we think it’ll snow tonight and tomorrow night. Counting both nights, look for “around an inch.”

The NWS Graphicast:

Here’s the text for tonight into Monday: “less than one half inch.”

AS FOR THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL...THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL EFFECT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. AREAS ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU COULD SEE ONE HALF TO 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ACROSS NON PLATEAU AREAS OF NORTHERN MIDDLE TN...ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN...NO MORE THAN A TRACE IS EXPECTED. read more