It’s Memorial Day. As long as we’re doing this, we will remember Army Spc. Jason K. Edens. We remember him today.
He was born in Nashville. He graduated from Franklin High School in 2007. After a few semesters in college, he joined the Army then married Ashley. Assigned to the 1st Squadron, 13th Cavalry Regiment, 3rd Brigade Combat Team, 1st Armored Division at Fort Bliss, Texas, he was deployed to Afghanistan in the fall of 2011.
As I write this, a cold front is arriving, scattering a few isolated showers across both counties, moving from west to east. This hit-or-miss activity may linger for a few hours. The HRRR model continues to show it:
A total of 1.06″ fell in the official rain can at BNA from yesterday’s rain.
Local CoCoRaHS observer totals in Davidson County:
And Williamson County:
Radar Estimated Storm Total Rainfall, which isn’t that reliable for raw totals, but it has a good idea of who got the most rain. Green is less than 1″ and yellow is more than 1″:
Let’s start by saying it’s very probably going to rain this weekend. And very probably a lot.
Thru Sunday night, the Euro model predicts 0.5″ to 0.7″, which is more than enough to rain out most anything. The GFS model is running higher totals, between 1.0″ and 1.1″. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center has even more, taking the totals closer to 2″.
That will change this week. Highs will approach 90° each day, Tuesday expect 91°, gonna be hot.
It’ll be a little more humid each day this week. Consult this dewpoint translator for each day this week.
This morning we were talking about a chance of rain Monday.
The NAM3 model thinks it will pass north of us:
The GFS model thinks it’ll pass this close to us Monday night:
I doubt your outdoor activities will be threatened Monday night. Even if there is some rain, it should pretty light.
It’s a cold morning as I write this, 42° at 6 AM. Not record-breaking cold, though. The record low for May 7 is 37° set in 1944.
The average high for May 7 is 76°, and we’ll come well under that today, high 70°.
The heaviest rain is east of us, but there is more on the way tonight and overnight.
Today we were on the east side of a low pressure center. Rain was coming from the south.
Friday, the low will move east of us, and we’ll get rain from the west side of the low (the orange arrows), moving north-to-south.
This afternoon’s severe thunderstorm winds, radar-estimated between 60-70 MPH, took down trees and power lines from Franklin toward BNA and Hermitage.
There was no tornado.
Rain should continue this afternoon — with a break late in the afternoon — then we should see more rain tonight. The HRRR model sure thinks so:
What: strong to severe thunderstorms with lightning and heavy rain, containing probabilities for damaging winds, localized flooding, and maybe a tornado.
When: Right now, we think 4 PM, plus or mins an hour or so either way.
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