Severe Weather Threat Today
What: strong to severe thunderstorms with lightning and heavy rain, containing probabilities for damaging winds, localized flooding, and maybe a tornado.
When: Right now, we think 4 PM, plus or mins an hour or so either way.
The HRRR model ETA is 4 PM. This makes the most sense to us.
Give this ETA about an hour or either way.
Even the NAM3 model has come into agreement on the 4 PM ETA; however, this models thinks the worst of it will be south of us:
Stay connected to reliable weather sources today. We’ll be tweeting frequent ETA updates.
A tornado is the least likely severe weather threat, but the threat is not zero.
Damaging Thunderstorm Winds (58+ MPH)
Damaging winds may be in the form of a microburst inside stronger thunderstorms. Microbursts aren’t tornadoes, but the winds they produce create low-strength tornado wind speeds. They happen when very strong winds fall out of the storm, crash to the ground, and spread out in all directions like ripples on a pond from a dropped rock. Here’s an example:
Large Hail (1″+): The Storm Prediction Center has removed us from its large hail risk outlook.
Heavy Rain Likely: NWS-Nashville forecasts a total of over 1.5″ of rain today, tonight, until sunrise Monday, enough to wash out outdoor activities and maybe wreck fields for practices/games Monday night.
More rain and storms are possible later tonight, but there should be less storm food available to fuel them. These are not expected to be strong or severe, but will be watched closely anyway:
All this rain will re-introduce a 5% to 10% risk of localized flash flooding, so says the Weather Prediction Center’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook:
It’s Going to be Windy: Winds have already gusted to 36 MPH this morning. This will continue today. Expect sustained winds in the 20 MPH range, gusting to near 40 MPH. A Wind Advisory remains in effect.
Secure all trampolines, deck umbrellas, and lightweight family members.
Hot & Humid: slightly less humid than yesterday, but still humid. High 86°.
Cooler Monday & Tuesday
We’ll wake up to 56° Monday morning, 50° Tuesday morning, with highs 71° Monday and 79° Tuesday. Humidity will drop off significantly, with dewpoints in the mid-40°s.
Rain chances return Wednesday and Thursday; however, the storm potential is too difficult to predict due to model uncertainty.
Stay tuned to reliable weather sources today.
Categories: Forecast Blogs