Forecast Blogs

The Week Ahead, Rain Chances, and the First Steeplechase Forecast of the Week


Awesome Sunday

It’s a cold morning as I write this, 42° at 6 AM. Not record-breaking cold, though. The record low for May 7 is 37° set in 1944.

The average high for May 7 is 76°, and we’ll come well under that today, high 70°.

No rain expected.

Chance of a Little Rain Monday

NWS describes our rain chance as a “weak disturbance.”

“On Monday, we will see a weak disturbance in the northwest flow attempt to spread some moisture our way.”

“Northwest flow” means wind blowing from the northwest. Here it refers to northwest wind carrying us a rain chance. The NAM3 model illustrates:

This model suggests rain will miss us.

However, another model, the GFS, thinks Nashville (but maybe not Williamson Co) may see 0.1″ Monday night, which is more than a few sprinkles:

However, yet another model, the Euro, keeps all the rain north of us.

I think, then, we may see a passing shower, but I doubt your outdoor activities will be threatened Monday night.

No Rain, but Heating Up Tuesday & Wednesday

86° both days, but the dewpoints will be hovering just under 60°. So, yeah, that’s warmer, maybe even hot, but not oppressively humid.

Next Big Weathermaker: Overnight Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Maybe Early Saturday

Overnight Wednesday into early Thursday, scattered, maybe even numerous, light rain with a few isolated thunderstorms mixed in should spread into Middle Tennessee.

This rain and thunderstorm activity will increase Thursday night into Friday. We think rain is likely at this time, and will be heaviest Friday. It should end Friday night (GFS model) or early Saturday morning (Euro model).

How Much Rain? I have a little concern that fields may be rained out for Saturday games.

  • The Euro has been going back and forth between a half inch of rain and 1.5″ inches of rain beginning Thursday and ending Saturday morning. A half inch would threaten Saturday stuff, an inch and a half would certainly cancel it. I think the 1.5″ is a bit dramatic, especially when reviewing the other models.
  • The GFS model thinks only 0.5″ during this time, which if spread out over 48 hours, would not be too bad.
  • The Weather Prediction Center’s official forecast is for around 0.5″ to 0.75″ of rain.
  • Note —- Predicting rain totals in tenths of an inch this far away is admittedly a bit silly. Draw no hard conclusions. The point is to give you an idea of what’s possible, and what the data is saying.

Severe Storms? Pretty hard to say. Probably not. The Storm Prediction Center says severe storm “predictability is too low” because although the models consistently show a decent rain, the storm ingredients are all over the place. So, maybe just some garden variety thunderstorms, but again, stay tuned on this, the predictability is too low. However, I’m not alarmed.

Steeplechase! The Next Weekend Guess: Pretty Great…After the Rain Finally Ends

High pressure to squeeze out any rain chances? check.

Northwest winds bringing a nice, cool breeze with highs in the 70°s? check.

I’ve never gone to Steeplechase, but Will goes just about every year. Because he’s Will and he’s cool. My kids are older so I’m usually at a ball field somewhere.

  1.  We don’t think it’ll rain or storm.
  2.  Temps will be pretty great. 70°s in the afternoon.
  3.  No humidity.
  4.  The ground may be damp, even muddy, from Friday/early Saturday rain.
  5.  Keep checking back on the forecast. This could change if that Thursday/Friday rain system slows down and creeps into Saturday.

Categories: Forecast Blogs