Friday morning rush hour may be rainy, maybe even heavy-rainy. HRRR model:
Another storm round is possible later in the day Friday. I’ll update the HRRR model tonight with more data, but from what we see in the data now:
Morning rain and storms SE of us this morning. Seen by mid level water vapor imagery:
Lightningstorms for some of us are likely late this afternoon.
HRRR model for today, time stamp upper right (subtract 1 hour):
Plans tonight may be interrupted by random, pop up downpours and thunderstorms.
HRRR model for tonight:
Same thing Sunday. Heat and humidity build through the afternoon, sparking downpours with lightning late afternoon through early evening. HRRR model:
Bad humid today and tonight. Dewpoints in the low 70s.
Isolated pop up storm possible mid/late afternoon. In a random, mysterious spot.
High today 97° + high dews = 104° max heat index. Heat Advisory in effect. Dewpoints will drop Friday night into the weekend. Still humid. Just not as bad as today.
The first disturbance feat. rain “should fizzle on Saturday,” all quotes from the NWS-Nashville forecast discussion. So that looks good, but note: side-eye:
Second disturbance ETA Saturday night. “We look for good chances for rain and some lightning Saturday night through Sunday morning.”
This afternoon/tonight. Clouds are limiting storm potential. Models think rain will fade through afternoon. Graduations tonight may be OK but we cannot rule out an isolated storm popping up.
Storms overnight should mature over Kentucky and drop south. HRRR model ETA 3-4 AM. Lightning, heavy rain, strong straight line winds main hazards. Tornado risk much further west where only a 2% probability within 25 miles is outlooked.
