Models are suggesting off/on rain and thunderstorms tomorrow. They’ll be hit or miss.
For example, the RAP model at 10am keeps the showers west of us:
The Hi-Res NAM keeps the showers east of us:
The truth is probably somewhere in between.
Rain/Storms will increase with daytime heating, then wither away as the sun goes down. Storms are capable of hail and straight-line winds. Our NWS:
INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY AND WE COULD SEE ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOP AND BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. STORMS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD WEAKEN BY NIGHTFALL.
High temps will be in the low 80s, with only a slight chance of an afternoon/early evening shower or thunderstorm Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.
Here’s the NWS weather-speak for Monday through Thursday:
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING AND INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY TO SPELL ISOLATED-SCATTERED STORMS THRU THAT PERIOD, ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY.
Our NWS expects a cold front to arrive during the wee hours of Friday morning. The storm is expected to have little CAPE (thunderstorm building blocks), but there will be a lot of wind shear and plenty of moisture to work with.
This means
[WE] COULD SEE LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS MINOR FLASH FLOODING.
Our NWS issued a Frost Advisory, effective Saturday morning from 4am to 8am. Here’s why:
WITH NEARLY FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETTING UP, TEMPERATURES WILL SLIP BELOW 40 DEGREES MOST AREAS, WITH FROST DEVELOPING BY MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO 33-37 DEGREES IN OUTLYING AREAS WEST OF THE PLATEAU, HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE 09Z-13Z [4AM-8AM] PERIOD.
