Severe Potential With Tonight’s Squall Line

Posted on Thursday, April 9, 2015 @ 11:57 am by Bobby McIllece

Current Temps and Radar

Today – Chance For Showers & Thunderstorms – High 85°

During daylight hours, we will be warm and muggy, with a really small chance for thunderstorms. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will occur during the late morning/early afternoon.

Tonight – Slight Risk For Severe Thunderstorms

The Storm Prediction Center has placed Nashville in the Slight category for severe weather potential tonight as a cold front, coupled with a strong line of thunderstorms, pushes through Middle Tennessee. As you can see, the bigger threat is to our west.

The SPC believes that the greatest risk will be damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher. They have us at a 15% chance for damaging winds within 25 miles of any point in Davidson and Williamson County.

The next best threat will be a 5% chance of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

I am hesitant to use the “t” word because the SPC has given us a 2% probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. That should be enough of a percent to stay weather alert tonight…

…If you have a NOAA Weather Radio or an weather app that will alert you if a tornado does develop then I would suggest using it tonight. Additionally, will keep you in the loop on Twitter @NashSevereWx.,

Below is a zoomed in look at the SPC’s Day 1 Outlook, with timing.

Right now it looks like the strong squall line (line of thunderstorms) will make it to Nashville between midnight and 5 AM. The HRRR shows the squall line crossing the Tennessee River at 11 PM.

(This model only goes out 15 hours)

The NAM 4 KM model is showing the line of thunderstorms on its way around 1 AM.

Summed Up: A line of strong thunderstorms will make it to Nashville between midnight and 5 AM tomorrow morning. The main threats will be damaging winds and hail, but there is a very small threat for a tornado. Keep it tuned with us for updates as we approach midnight.

Friday – Chance For Showers & Thunderstorms Before Noon – Wake Up 56°, High 70°

According to the National Weather Service we will have a chance for showers and thunderstorms before 1 PM. After noon the chance for rain will end and the cloud cover will gradually clear.