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Severe Thunderstorms (Hail, Wind) Looking More Likely

Current Temps and Radar

Today – Marginal/Slight Risk of Severe T-storms – High: 79°

The Storm Prediction Center has placed Nashville right on the border of a Slight Risk and Marginal Risk for severe weather today. Here is one way of looking at SPC Categorical Outlooks for severe thunderstorms:

NashSevereWx (@NashSevereWx) _ Twitter - Mozilla Firefox 2015-04-02 08.40.04

Portions of northern Nashville metro are in the yellow Slight Risk category.

Storm Prediction Center Apr 2, 2015 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - Mozilla Firefox 2015-04-02 08.00.04

The main threats will be hail and strong winds. What this really means is that Davidson and Williamson Counties have between a 5% – 15% chance that severe weather develops and produces greater than 58 MPH wind gusts and hail that is one inch or greater happening within 25 miles of us.

We will have the chance for hit and miss showers all day, but after noon the National Weather Service believes that we could see thunderstorms.

The HRRR Model shows thunder storms firing up around 3 PM.

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-04-02 08.06.49

The NAM 4KM is keeping us mostly dry… Here is a look at 3 PM.

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-04-02 09.17.02

Conditions are are ripe for thunderstorms to develop, so we are leaning towards the HRRR Model. Additionally, the National Weather Service believes that our best chance thunderstorms will be between 4 PM and 7 PM.

Overnight we will hang onto a chance for showers and thunderstorms as a cold front creeps closer to Middle Tennessee.

Rain totals look to be between 0.1″ and 0.5″ here in Nashville.

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The heavier rain will stay north of the Tennessee/Kentucky border.

Friday – Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms – Wake Up: 61°, High: 74°

The cold front will reach Middle Tennessee on Friday and be the catalyst for severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center has given Middle Tennessee an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms.

NWS - Mozilla Firefox 2015-04-02 09.27.25

This means we have a 30% chance for severe thunderstorms producing straight line winds greater than 55 MPH and hail > 1″ within 25 miles of us. Frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes are also possible.

Storm Prediction Center Apr 2, 2015 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook - Mozilla Firefox 2015-04-02 09.33.29

Our best chance for thunderstorms will be during the afternoon and early evening hours.

The NAM 4 KM Model shows thunderstorms developing ahead of the main line of showers and thunderstorms (squall line) at 2 PM.

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-04-02 09.39.02

This Model Indicates that the squall line will move overhead around the evening commute.

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-04-02 09.41.11

The GFS is in agreement with the NAM 4 KM and shows the most intense rainfall occurring between 1 PM and 7 PM.

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-04-02 09.54.34

After 7 PM, any showers that stick around will lose intensity, and will likely not be severe in nature. The line of showers and thunderstorms will be out of out hair and to the southeast of Nashville by midnight.

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center believes that rain totals will be between 0.25″ and 1″ of rain from 7 AM Friday through 7 AM Saturday.

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Between 7 AM Thursday – 7 AM Saturday we are expecting between 0.5″ – 1.5″ of rain.

Saturday – The Sun – Wake Up: 42°, High: 60°

Cooler temps and sunny skies will be in store for us on Saturday!

Overnight lows will be in the upper 30’s.

Extended:

extended

Enjoy Saturday and the nice weather during the day on Easter because showers and thunderstorms return to start the week.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

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