Storms expected this evening and tonight. Low tornado thread added.

Within 25 miles of you tonight, there is a 2% chance of a tornado occurring, a 15% chance of damaging wind occurring and a 5% chance of large hail.

Timing

Latest HRRR showing a couple of rounds of storms. Round 1 cells cross the TN River around 6-7 pm and arrives here shortly after. This appears to be our “main event.” Round 2 likely weakens as it arrives and gets discombobulated into scattered cells. This scenario could change, so check back later today. HRRR below, 4:00 pm – 6:00 am.

The Stage That’s Set

The stage that’s set is a high CAPE (storm fuel), low shear (spin) event. We can expect a lot of lightning, storms that sound pretty gnarly. Again, the tornado threat is low, but not zero. Main concern is damaging straight-line winds and hail with this setup.

Additional Details from Our Local NWS Office