Rain Tonight; Cold Front Early Next Week

Few Thanksgivings in recent memory have been as nice weather-wise as yesterday. With a high of 61°, it was perfect for David’s Turkey Bowl, which he described yesterday.

So, every year I aim to leave 30% of the plate visible once I load it up with food. Each year I fail miserably. The problem is this: Once 70% of the plate is full, there’s still 30% of the buffet remaining left to visit. It’s simple math. But, that was yesterday. This is today.

Tonight

If you put up Christmas lights today, as I did, I hope you had less of this

and more of this.

Hopefully, you got the reveal in before the rain arrived.

Rain will last through much of the night. The Weather Prediction Center is forecasting two tenths of an inch of rain for us, and the forecast has been trending downward in the last few forecast cycles. So, this won’t be an intense rainfall. Just some pockets of moderate rain here and there.

Saturday

Leftover showers may stick around early Saturday morning around sunrise, but the sun should make an appearance in the afternoon. This rain won’t cool us off. We’ll still manage a high of 63° if everything goes as planned. So, Saturday looks salvageable if the rain will mosey on out of here. We think it will.

Sunday & Into Next Week

Sunday looks like another nice day, but rain will be moving back in as a strong cold front takes aim at us. Suffice it to say, Sunday will be our last day in the 60s for the remainder of the forecast period. The high Sunday could reach as high as 69°. We’ll take it.

Showers accompany the front Sunday evening into Sunday night, but thunderstorms are not anticipated. Instability is 👎, so we’re not worried about this system getting cranky. Get ready for cold, though, as we get into next week. Highs will be in the 40s for at least the first half of the week.

 

Hot This Evening, Rain Chances Return Sunday and Through Mid-Week

Hot This Afternoon

At the 4:00 pm observation at BNA this afternoon, the temp was 94° with a dewpoint of 62°. It’s hot! Temps should cool to 72° tonight with rain chances very low, although a few spotty showers aren’t out of the question.

Rain Chances Return on Sunday

High pressure will push to the east and do it’s clock-wise motion thing, tossing moisture our way from the Gulf. This increase in moisture combined with a little system coming in from the west will cause rain chances to go up. Isolated strong storms are possible, but our NWS isn’t expecting severe weather. The Nam 3km model isn’t too impressed, but does depict those isolated to scattered storms. Loop goes through 10:00 pm Sunday night. Temps should top out around 90° Sunday afternoon.

Monday Looks A Lot Like Sunday

Monday looks very similar to Sunday in the upper level pattern. Afternoon storms are possible, and temps should top out around 92°. Neither Sunday or Monday will be wash-out days. We’re talking about isolated/scattered storms, pretty typical for this time of year. It’s impossible to know at this point exactly who will see rain and when. Keep radar handy.

Front Approaches Tuesday, May Hang Around A While

On Tuesday, a cold front approaches our area and may stall out. We’re still a few days away, but it looks like rain/storm chances could increase Tuesday and remain elevated through at least Thursday night. According to the US Drought Monitor, we’re getting into the Abnormally Dry category (yellow), so we could use some rain. We’ll revise rain forecasts as we get closer.


“Heat Wave” Today Followed By More Brrrr

Temps Are The Story Today

Ok. Let’s get above freezing today. What do you say?

Our low of 16° this morning should warm to 34° at BNA today, breaking our streak of temps below freezing…but only for a few hours. Remember, our temp has been below 32° since Saturday evening. But, I don’t think I have to tell you that.

Our National Weather Service mentioned the possibility of a few flurries today as we get scraped by a system, but no worries.

A Look at the Weekend and Beyond

We’ll begin the weekend with “below-freezing” highs once again. However, as our next system approaches, our winds will shift, bringing warmer air our way. We’ll get above freezing on Sunday. With this warmer air comes some rain beginning sometime Sunday PM and lasting through Monday. Temps look too warm for shenanigans. But, we’re watching Monday night to see if incoming colder air matches up with the remaining moisture as the system departs. More on that later.

The Weather Prediction Center thinks we will see .25-.50″ of rain between now and 6:00 am Monday morning.

Winter never lasts forever y’all. We’re closer to Spring 2018 than we’ve ever been. Onward!


Mostly Rain-Free Weekend; Unsettled Next Week


Where’s the Rain?

The weekend is here! During this past work week, we talked about occasional storm chances. Those storms happened, but most of them didn’t form right on top of us. Many places right around us saw substantial rainfall and even flooding, but some of us in Davidson & Williamson Counties are actually getting pretty dry. Here’s where a tenth of an inch of rain or more has fallen over the past few days.

Humid, Chance of Pop-Up Storms Today: High 85

Those small storm chances continue today as humid air sits on top of us and a surface boundary tries to come in and bring some drier air. We don’t expect severe weather. Nor do we expect it to storm all day. But, brief storms are possible. Keep your plans for today.

The 6:00 am HRRR model thinks it will happen something like this:

WillCo Fair Plans?

Do your plans today include the last day of the Williamson County Fair? Don’t let the weather stop you! Even if you get a quick rainer, there is plenty of stuff to do inside. Just be fair-smart. Fried butter and a Tilt-A-Whirl go together like a car and softball-size hail.

We’ll be over on Twitter following any storms that pop up.

Again, just be smart and have fun…within reason.

Sunday: Sun Returns, Rain-Free, Drier Air Moves In: High 86

Our NWS wrote this morning:

“Tomorrow will be the nicest day over the forecast period. Dew points will be in the mid 60s with highs near 80 to mid 80s.”

Those dew points will take us from “I need gills to breathe” to “extra deodorant swipe.” Being mid-August…

The Rest of Next Week

Our NWS acknowledged this morning that forecasting next week is tough, currently.

Translation: 1) Next week looks unsettled. 2) We can expect rain. 3) As we get closer, those timings will come into focus a little better than they are today. Stay tuned!

Eclipse Is Less Than 10 Days Away!

The big question on our minds is “will it be cloudy on eclipse day?” Our NWS sent out a VERY preliminary forecast yesterday for eclipse day. If you don’t read anything else here, please read this. Take this forecast with a very large grain of salt. It will change. It will be revised. But, this forecast identifies the pattern we may be in that day and what kind of weather is typical for said pattern.


Some Snow Possible With A Cold Snap

A Nod to Mr. Bobby Boyd

You probably don’t know him. Mr. Boyd has worked over 50 years in public service to this community as a forecaster at the NWS office in Nashville. He didn’t want a big deal made of his retirement, so if I can presume to speak for Nashville and all of Middle Tennessee, I’ll leave this here simply with a sincere “thank you.”

Wednesday, Wake up 35, High 38

We likely won’t hit 40 degrees, but at least precip should be out of here, and the sun should make an appearance! Then, we start talking about snow possibilities.

Snow? You Sure?

If you’ve been following along for a day or two, you know the computer models we use to help forecast have been all over the place with a system that will affect us later this week. Some models showed large snow amounts. Some showed none. When this happens, it is said that the forecast confidence is “low.” So far, this has been the case on the snow forecast later this week.

However, this afternoon’s forecast discussion from the folks at our National Weather Service mentions “increasing confidence” in the forecast as computer models start to argue less and deal with the important questions.

Laff fight argue grumpy old men grumpyoldmen

So? A stab at a snow forecast for Thursday

While models still aren’t in perfect agreement, they are agreeing enough that our NWS is taking a stab at a possible scenario.

national-weather-service-text-product-display-google-chrome-2017-01-03-18-24-00

Translation: Temps are not a problem in the snow recipe. Whatever falls will fall as snow. Additionally, whatever falls will stick.

national-weather-service-text-product-display-google-chrome-2017-01-03-18-28-50

Translation: At the present time, NWS doesn’t believe this will be a big snow event for us. Also, notice the caveat, “should this light snow occur…” Yep, no snow is a possibility.

dd

 

Then, There’s Friday Night

Equally, or even more uncertain, is what will happen with a low pressure area models say will develop along the Gulf Coast Friday night. If you love a “good snow” in Nashville (whatever that is), this is the preferred set up for how to get that. However, this low looks to go too far S to give us much snow Friday. However, with the way models have been acting over the past several days, we’ll be keeping an eye on it. The GFS illustrates this “too far south” track below.

gfs

A Glance At The Weekend

Whatever precip we get looks to move out Saturday, but it will remain cold until midweek as we warmup ahead of our next weather system. But, let’s get through this week first.

Summary

Keep doing your thing. It’s too early to draw snow maps, too early to cancel stuff, too early to know exactly what’s going to happen. Bundle up. Get ready for some cold. If you see outrageous snow forecasts, cringe like you did on New Year’s Eve.

mc

Extended

ext

 

Current Radar

 

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Warm Today, Rain On the Way

Current Radar

Hope you’re having a great weekend! Get out and enjoy this weather. Rain chances go up as time goes along this weekend.

This Afternoon: Mostly Cloudy, 20% Chance of Showers, High: 71

Expect the clouds to stay around today, but temps will be nice! Not expecting a washout, but some light/brief showers could swing by.

HRRR model through 2am

hrrr_2016022017_ref_nashville

Tonight: Showers/T’Showers late, Low: 56

Rain chances increase a bit overnight as instability increases. Won’t be surprised to hear a few rumbles of thunder. Not expecting any severe storms.

Sunday: Rain chances go up. High: 67

A disturbance hangs around Sunday bringing showers and thunderstorms. Nam4 Model thinks the best rain chances will be in the morning. Pic below of 11am Sunday with rain moving east.

nam4

Looking Ahead: Rain moves out for Monday, temps drop back into the 50s, and we begin looking ahead to a strong low pressure system for mid-week. Models working out the details on the exact track of the low. Most bring it pretty close to Nashville. We’ll iron out those details after the models cook a little longer.

extended

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Sunny Weekend, Rainy Week

Current Radar 

So we had some flurries this morning over both counties. Your reports were great! Kept Will busy at the #tspotter desk, but he’s a pro. Ain’t no thang.

Tonight – Clear & upper 20s

HRRR keeps us dry and flurry free tonight. (Pink lines are freezing lines).

Per those squiggly pink lines, temps will drop below freezing again. By 9pm, most of us will be in the mid-30s.

Bundle up if you’re heading out tonight, but winds shouldn’t be a major issue.

Saturday – Plenty of sun! At sunrise: 28°, High 52°

High pressure scoots along south of us. Our winds will start out from the WNW and evolve into a milder SW flow as the high pressure moves east. Aka: Warmer temps on the way!

gfs1

Sunday – Wake Up: 32°, High: 58°

Mostly sunny skies continue! Be sure to get out and enjoy Sunday. It will likely be your last chance for sun and dry weather for several days.

Look, it’ll be okay. We’ll get through this together.

Looking Ahead – Rain Chances Abound, Temps Continue to Rise

WPC thinks we’ll see around an inch of rain through 6pm Christmas Eve.

qpf2

We’ll get more specific with timing as we get closer, so get out and enjoy this weekend!

7day

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.