Today – FLASH FLOOD WATCH – High 74

Clouds are exiting Middle Tennessee, moving north-northeast. The relentless rain shield has moved out.

The HRRR model gives us a few more stray showers tonight.  Here it is from Saturday 4 PM to Sunday 1 AM: read more

Strong high pressure over Bermuda is pulling moisture in. A trough has set up to our west. This is working to squeeze out the moisture, like wringing out a wet t-shirt.

To monitor area creeks/streams/rivers for flood potential, follow this link. read more

Friday – FLASH FLOOD WATCH Until 7 p.m. Showers & Thunderstorms, High 82

(7 am 68 . 10 am 77 . 1 pm 81 . 4 pm 82 . 7 pm 80 . 10 pm 74).

Most weather models predict the rain end around 6 a.m. to 8 a.m, if not before then. We may be dry through lunch, and maybe even as late as mid-afternoon. Then, rain chances increase the later in the day we get. Another batch of rain is expected Friday night. read more

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Overview

You won’t find any jokes in this fourthcast, because it sucks.

An unusually wet weather pattern is arriving, and it won’t change for the next several days.  This will be like a tropical system, full of moisture and thunderstorm chances. Strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out at any time over the next several days.

But the main story will be rain.  A lot of rain.

Tonight

Rain will be close by. Weather models keep the rain in East Tennessee, but extend it as far west as I-65. This may be our last dry night for a while.

Fourthcast

Our NWS has issued a Flash Flood Watch effective beginning at 12 a.m. Thursday morning through Friday at 7 p.m.

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY... .A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM OVER THE REGION WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING UP TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN. read more

Wednesday – Showers/Thunderstorms Possible, High 83

(7 am 66 . 10 am 77 . 1 pm 82 . 4 pm 84 . 7 pm 81 . 10 pm 74).

Our NWS gives us 40% chance for showers and thunderstorms. Those rain chances increase later Wednesday night. read more

Rest of Monday – High 84; Scattered Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms have been weaving in and out of the area all afternoon, thanks to a meandering low pressure system that will be hanging around the next few days. Even though most of the storm activity is to our east, there still could be some storms well after sunset. We may also see some patchy fog late tonight. read more

Scattered showers (hit and miss) will spread across Middle Tennessee tonight.

Low pressure wandering in the nation’s midsection will cloud us up, cool us off, and create a chance of rain every day this week. read more

Next Several Days

A low pressure center at 500 mb (that’s at 18,000 feet) will wander south from the Great Lakes, then spin around through the 4th of July. See the below (patriotic) loop from June 29 through July 7. The low pressure is red.  This will “unsettle” our weather through the 4th.

Our NWS says:

THIS DOESNT MEAN IT IS GOING 
TO RAIN EVERY MINUTE OF EVERY
HOUR BUT THERE WILL BE AN ON-
GOING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND 
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON A 
DAILY BASIS.

They continue:

EVEN AFTER UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CANADA AROUND JULY 4TH WE HAVE SUCH A GOOD MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THANKS TO A RATHER STRONG BERMUDA HIGH KEEPING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. read more

Today – High 86

A cold front has pushed through, ushering in cooler, drier air from the north. Aaaahhhh, sweet, wonderful relief.

Less humidity, with only a very slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms.  Any storms that  develop will be on the weaker side of things. Nothing to worry about. read more