Friday – FLASH FLOOD WATCH Until 7 p.m. Showers & Thunderstorms, High 82
(7 am 68 . 10 am 77 . 1 pm 81 . 4 pm 82 . 7 pm 80 . 10 pm 74).
Most weather models predict the rain end around 6 a.m. to 8 a.m, if not before then. We may be dry through lunch, and maybe even as late as mid-afternoon. Then, rain chances increase the later in the day we get. Another batch of rain is expected Friday night.
Hi-Res NAM model Friday 7 AM – Friday 4 PM: (One frame an hour)
As of right now the Flash Flood Watch is set to expire at 7 PM Friday, but it could always be extended if Friday night’s rain is more than forecast.
As of right now none of the rivers are flooding, near flood stage, or expected to flood based on the current forecast. This something we will be closely monitoring. Rivers and creeks can flood very quickly if heavy rain stalls or “trains” in the wrong place.
Saturday – Showers & Thunderstorms, High 82
(7 am 69 . 10 am 77 . 1 pm 81 . 4 pm 82. 7 pm 80 . 10 pm 75).
Rain continues Friday night, into the overnight hours, and into Saturday morning.
There may be another break in the rain by mid-morning, followed by another swath of rain moving in from the Gulf later in the day.
The rain timing is difficult to pinpoint accurately this far out. These rain blobs may move 25 miles east or west, which could make the difference between a dry day and a wet one. There is a high amount of uncertainty about the timing and location of Saturday’s rain.
Sunday – Lingering Showers/Thunderstorms Begin Clearing, High 85
(7 am 70 . 10 am 77 . 1 pm 84 . 4 pm 84 . 7 pm 82 . 10 pm 76).
Our forecast high is 85, which suggests we’re trading rain for sun. As Sunday progresses, the chance of rain decreases. More rain is likely next week, but we won’t worry about that right now.
WPC (Weather Prediction Center) total rainfall has us right on the edge of some really significant rainfall amounts Thursday 7 a.m. – Sunday 7 p.m.:
Updated information can be found on Twitter @NashSevereWx.
Categories: Forecast Blogs