The 8 p.m. update from the Storm Prediction Center has arrived. They’ve put us within the following probabilities of “x” happening within 25 miles of you tonight:
Damaging Winds (58 mph or more): 30%. Notice we’re in the bullseye.
The 3 p.m. update from the Storm Prediction Center was largely unchanged for us. The probabilities of “x” happening within 25 miles of you today:
Afternoon thunderstorms (previously advertised as “Round 1”) haven’t developed as predicted by weather models, likely due to a “cap” up in the atmosphere preventing a large amount of thunderstorm energy from being released. Also limiting afternoon thunderstorms has been some “mixing,” causing drier dewpoints to come on down . . .
Today we’ll feel high humidity and temps topping out in the low 90s, but the main concern is the possibility of severe weather this afternoon and tonight.
Before I dive into the weather models, remember: weather models are useful tools for guidance. They are not Gospel. They are often off by hours, or “wrong” altogether.