Although higher probs exist to our NE, both of our counties are outlooked with a 5% chance of damaging straight-line winds and/or hail within 25 miles today. We are not included in any tornado probabilities.
Category: Featured Blog
Embracing Uncertainty Today and Saturday with Low-End Chance of Straight Line Winds
Low-End Threat for Damaging Straight-Line Winds Friday and Saturday
Most models think a cluster(s) of showers/storms will be moving thru around rush hour Friday AM. The HRRR model thinks it’ll look something like:
Models are in fairly good agreement that these should be below severe limits. Although heavy rain, lightning and gusty winds will still be possible, just not really concerned about this – forecast could change.
Rain, Storms Friday (two rounds?) & Saturday, Severe Concerns Low (for now)
Friday morning rush hour may be rainy, maybe even heavy-rainy. HRRR model:
- Previous model runs suggested lightning and maybe a few strong cells. But recent runs show this morning wave weakening on approach. HRRR forecast sounding above shows a big drop in storm fuel as this line arrives.
- Not concerned by this round.
- This forecast may change.
Another storm round is possible later in the day Friday. I’ll update the HRRR model tonight with more data, but from what we see in the data now:
